Picking & Grinning: UFC Live 5 Prelims
Jeff Sherwood Aug 14, 2011
Joseph Benavidez (right) should get by the very tough Eddie
Wineland. | Photo: J. Sherwood
Sherdog.com staff and contributors put their reputations on the line with bold predictions for the UFC Live 5 prelims, which will stream live on the Ultimate Fighting Championship Facebook page at 5:45 p.m. ET/2:45 p.m. PT on Sunday from the Bradley Center in Milwaukee.
Bantamweights
Joseph Benavidez vs. Eddie Wineland
Advertisement
Jordan Breen: Benavidez is a well-deserved favorite. With his underrated submissions -- especially that gruesome guillotine -- and scramble-heavy style, he can absolutely set-up a fight-ending choke here. The real test will be closing the takedown against the rangier Wineland, who has real stand-up chops. Benavidez did have some trouble against Ian Loveland in March, and the body dynamics are similar in this one. However, Wineland, even though he performed admirably against Benavidez’s mentor, Faber, doesn’t have the wrestling Loveland does. There’s upset potential here, but Benavidez is definitely in the driver’s seat.
Tomasz Marciniak: Wineland’s takedown defense looked much
improved against Benavidez’s Team Alpha Male teammate, Faber.
Wineland was really physical, and perhaps that bodes well for a
fight against a smaller opponent in Benavidez. Loveland, similarly
a lean fighter that shut down Benavidez’s takedowns, gave him a
torrid time. If Wineland can work a sprawl-and-brawl game plan for
10 minutes, he will be in prime position for an upset, but I’ll
ultimately side with Benavidez to get the takedowns he needs to win
this fight.
Lightweights
T.J. O’Brien vs. Cole Miller
Brian Knapp: O’Brien has a tough assignment against an opponent who is better at what he does best and by a wide margin. Miller’s experience and ability to remain cool under fire figure to serve him well in this one. O’Brien might manage to bully his way into top position at some point, but that will only lull him into a false sense of security and suck him further into Miller’s spidery ground game. Look for the American Top Team representative to lock up a triangle choke from his back for the finish.
Guilherme Pinheiro: All of O’Brien’s 16 wins came by way of submission. Unfortunately for him, he is going to face a guy who’s just as good as or better than him on the ground. Plus, “Magrinho” is more accustomed to facing top-level opposition than O’Brien. Give me Miller by submission in the second period.
Todd Martin: Miller has only lost fights via knockout or decision, while O’Brien has never won a fight by either of those methods. That would seem to spell trouble for O’Brien. His game is submissions, but Miller is more dangerous in that department and he’ll take this fight.
Middleweights
Kyle Noke vs. Ed Herman
Freddie DeFreitas: Noke has quietly built himself a five-fight winning streak, three of those under the UFC banner since joining the organization last summer. An exceptionally well-rounded fighter with an almost equal number of submissions and knockouts on his record, Noke has the advantage in almost every department against Herman, with the exclusion of one key element: the takedowns. If Herman can get Noke to the mat, the fight is there for the taking, but should he struggle to achieve the takedown, the Portland, Ore., native will probably be in for a long night. Give me Noke by TKO late in the third round.
Tony Loiseleur: Even with his recent quick victory over Tim Credeur, I’m not sure we’ve seen whether Herman’s long layoff has affected him at all. However, Noke won’t be as reckless as Credeur was against Herman, so I expect him to pick his shots and control the grappling in the event he’s taken down. I think it should be enough for a decision in his favor, but should Noke get into position for a choke, expect Herman to go to sleep since I don’t see him tapping.
Lutfi Sariahmed: At 3-0 in the UFC and 6-1 in his last seven bouts, Noke has the opportunity to break through into the upper echelon of the UFC middleweight division with a win over Herman. “Short Fuse” is a roadblock for Noke, though, and a relatively formidable one at that. Noke will need to rely on his ground game against Herman because standing in the pocket and trading shots would find Noke on the short end. It won’t be pretty, but Noke will do enough to earn the win over Herman.
Light Heavyweights
Ronny Markes vs. Karlos Vemola
Rob King: Vemola looked good in his last fight, but I don’t think he is ever going to be a top-level guy. Markes has looked good on the regional scene, but has faced less than stellar opposition on the way to his UFC shot. Vemola’s strength is his ability to bully opponents, but give me Markes to survive the initial onslaught and earn a decision victory.
Critchfield: Markes owns a notable victory over Paulo Filho, but the former WEC champion hasn’t exactly been spectacular of late. Against Vemola, he will be facing a powerful wrestler who dropped from heavyweight. Markes will either need to avoid the takedowns and land some combinations or work for a submission when fighting from his back. The thinking here is that Vemola will be too strong and takes a decision or a late stoppage.
Breen: Markes is a talented, well-rounded prospect but could have used more time before climbing into the Octagon. He’s still raw, and Vemola, despite his lack of technique, is a physical beast who can hurt an opponent and crush him to a finish. Markes has a chance if he can tire out Vemola and play a bit of top position, forcing a longer bout. However, the most likely outcome is that “The Terminator” gets after it and earns his second Octagon win.
Lightweights
Danny Castillo vs. Jacob Volkmann
Marciniak: Castillo is clearly the better puncher, and, as long as he can avoid getting put on his back too often, he should put some points on the board against Volkmann. The Minnesotan is a competent wrestler, so, at some point, Castillo will get put on his back. However, I think he can fend off Volkmann enough to win a close decision.
Knapp: This is a difficult one to call. Volkmann is the superior wrestler and figures to press the clinch in order to even out the disadvantage he faces on his feet. A former welterweight, I expect him to bully Castillo on the cage, score with a few takedowns and do enough on the ground to avoid restarts. Volkmann takes a decision.
Pinheiro: This is a tough one. Based on his last fights, I think Volkmann is versed enough in wrestling to take down Castillo and make him pay for 15 minutes. I’ll take Volkmann by decision
Loiseleur: I’m on the fence with this one, but if there’s one thing that’s certain of Volkmann, it’s that he’s one who has frequently defied the odds to get the win. Castillo may find himself matched by Volkmann’s standup and takedown defense. If it gets to the ground, Volkmann should be able to throw on submission attempts, but I don’t expect to see him tapping Castillo. I think MMA’s Lloyd Christmas gets the decision here.
Middleweights
Jared Hamman vs. C.B. Dollaway
Martin: Hamman is a game fighter and will present problems for Dollaway with his size and power. However, Dollaway has a wrestling edge that is likely to pay big dividends here. I think he’ll ground and frustrate Hamman, taking over the fight as time progresses on his way to a decision victory.
DeFreitas: In Hamman's first trip down to the middleweight division, he should be the bigger man when he meets a near mirror image of himself in Dollaway. Both men possess very similar skill sets, with the edge in submissions going the way of Dollaway. Hamman, I would argue, is the better overall grappler and should be able to put Dollaway on his back and, for the most part, keep him there for 15 minutes.
Knapp: Dollaway remains one of the better wrestlers in the middleweight division and wields a varied and underrated submission attack. I look for him to move inside on Hamman, neutralize his power and plant him with takedowns. Once there, the fight is Dollaway’s to loose. Expect the decision to come down in his favor.
Featherweights
Jim Hettes vs. Alex Caceres
Sariahmed: I’m morally opposed to picking anyone that goes by the nickname “Bruce Leroy.” Yes, Hettes comes in as a late replacement for Leonard Garcia, but his record is vastly superior. He’s 8-0, including a nice win last month over a veteran of the northeastern MMA circuit, Jacob Kirwan. I worry about having only a month between bouts for Hettes, but nothing about Caceres’ game impresses me. Give me Hettes to win.
King: Hard to go with the complete unknown, but from what I know about Caceres makes it very difficult for me to pick him in any high-level fight. Caceres’ striking is average, and his submissions are nothing special. Hettes has apparently looked good in his regional fights, but not much is known about him. I’ll take the flyer on the UFC rookie to win via submission.
Critchfield: Caceres hasn’t been overly impressive and likely would have been overmatched against Garcia. While Bruce Leroy now draws an Octagon newcomer in Hettes, he could still be in for a rough night. Hettes is well-versed in jiu-jitsu and has finished all of his opponents by submission. Caceres has proven susceptible to a decent ground game in the past, so Hettes makes him tap in the second round.
Bantamweights
Jason Reinhardt vs. Edwin Figueroa
Breen: Reinhardt is like an ongoing parody of Midwestern MMA. It’s almost unfathomable that he’s getting a third UFC bout. This one will treat him no better, as Figueroa dominates him standing with his hyper-aggressive brand of offense, either garnering a stoppage or forcing Reinhardt to give up a submission.
Marciniak: I don’t really understand why Reinhardt is getting another chance to prove he can hang at the UFC level when the answer to that question was obvious back in 2007. Figueroa looked game against Michael McDonald, one of the sport’s best young fighters, and he should dispatch Reinhardt easily within round one.
Knapp: It’s hard not to pull for a guy like Reinhardt, who, at 41, continues to plug away and pursue a dream that, from a distance, seems out of reach. He reminds me of a Double-A journeyman catcher who clings to the hope that someday he’ll find his niche and stick in the big leagues, only to find out time and time again that his talent just is not up to snuff. Reinhardt has a track record to call upon here. He beats up on subpar opposition and falls short against everyone else. Unfortunately for him, there is no room for weakness in the UFC. Figueroa grinds him down and finishes him in the first round, perhaps extinguishing that dream once and for all.
2011 Picking & Grinning Standings:
Jordan Breen: 112-46
Brian Knapp: 112-46
Tomasz Marciniak: 111-47
Tristen Critchfield: 110-48
Todd Martin: 106-52
Guilherme Pinheiro: 106-52
Freddie DeFreitas: 102-56
Rob King: 102-56
Tony Loiseleur: 100-58
Lutfi Sariahmed: 100-58
Related Articles
