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UFC Middleweight Championship

Chris Weidman (13-0) vs Luke Rockhold (14-2)

THE MATCHUP: First the UFC had Rich Franklin. He was usurped by Anderson Silva. It took many years, but Weidman came along to knock Silva off of his perch. After each of these upsets, the old champion seemed to fade away and be wholly replaced by the new one. In other words, the UFC’s middleweight division has only ever had one king whose skill or athletic prowess put him head and shoulders above the rest of his weight class.

That is not the case anymore. Rockhold and Weidman are as closely matched as any two fighters in middleweight history. In terms of potential, athletic ability and well-roundedness, they may very well be the two best middleweights of all-time. Weidman is a dynamite puncher, the kind of striker who seems to hurt opponents without really trying. This power is backed up by his constant, calculated pressure. He moves forward and side to side in small, measured steps, eating up the open space of the Octagon and looking to corral his opponent into the fence, where he can go to work with hard, straight punches and dive on takedown attempts.

Rockhold likes to pressure himself, though he lacks Weidman’s jab and solid footwork. His edge is his reach, which he takes full advantage of by sitting back in his stance and flicking out long kicks and straight left hands. Rockhold is Weidman’s superior in terms of counterpunching, with a sneaky right hook that he drags after himself whenever he is forced to retreat, punishing opponents who try to pursue him. Weidman is a strong kicker himself, but Rockhold’s kicking game is far more elegant, making use of a wide variety of angles to punish his opponent from range.

Rockhold is deceptively hard to take down, and he has an unorthodox approach to wrestling, using his opponents’ momentum against them and dragging them to the ground, where his slick back takes and venomous submissions make him a constant threat. Weidman is a grappling virtuoso himself, with a more straightforward wrestling approach, relying on reactive takedowns and snatch singles to control the whereabouts of the fight.

THE ODDS: Weidman (-145), Rockhold (+125)

THE PICK: Whether at range, in the clinch or on the ground, this is an extremely close fight. Both fighters are dangerous finishers with different strengths and very few weaknesses. In the end, I think Weidman probably takes a little too much damage and wears out a little too quickly to be a strong favorite here. Rockhold is virtually tireless, dangerous and aggressive in all phases and more keen to protect himself in the pocket, using footwork, head movement and counterpunches to defend. Weidman seems to improve between every fight, but he has never shown great head movement, and Rockhold seems likely to exploit that porous defense for five straight rounds. The pick is Rockhold by unanimous decision.

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