Preview: UFC 212 ‘Aldo vs. Holloway’

Women’s Strawweights

Claudia Gadelha (14-2) vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz (10-1)

THE MATCHUP: Her success in the UFC has given many the impression that Kowalkiewicz is a masterful kickboxer. Thus, given Gadelha’s jiu-jitsu background, some might view this as a classic striker-versus-grappler matchup. In truth, however, Kowalkiewicz is not much of a technician on the feet, and Gadelha is more than capable with her fists.

Kowalkiewicz is not much of an athlete. Her technique is improving with each fight, but she has always been a little uncoordinated on the feet. While her arms punch, her feet are usually doing something totally unrelated. When she throws, she squares up and her chin floats high into the air. She moves a lot, but her footwork is full of holes. With that said, it was not technique alone which made Kowalkiewicz a top UFC contender. If her skill is overrated, then her toughness is sorely underrated. Kowalkiewicz is durable, physically and mentally. She is happy to soak up damage if it means getting the chance to land. When she finds something that works, she keeps trying it; and while Kowalkiewicz’s kickboxing is not all that it is made out to be, her clinch striking is fearsome indeed. Her footwork takes most of the power out of her strikes at range, but when she is anchored -- holding onto opponents or pinning them to the ground -- she really can crack.

For Gadelha, the result of this fight hinges on her ability to tie up on her own terms, without giving Kowalkiewicz a window to land hard elbows and knees. Gadelha is the best takedown artist in the division, and she has excellent control from the body lock, so she should be able to score some takedowns. If Gadelha is forced to tie up against the fence, however, Kowalkiewicz’s underrated takedown defense and aggressive clinch striking will be a problem.

Of course, as we have noted, this is not a striker-versus-grappler matchup. Gadelha still looks a little robotic on the feet, but her striking fundamentals are sound. She has a sharp jab, a heavy right hand and a sneaky left hook. Gadelha is also a skillful counterpuncher. She likes to catch punches on her high guard and respond with straight shots, and these days, she usually fires those shots in combination. Gadelha also has solid footwork, her movements efficient and intelligent.

Stamina may be an issue for the Brazilian. With a better gas tank, she would not have absorbed so many strikes in the third round against Jessica Aguilar. With a better gas tank, she might have had the energy to beat Joanna Jedrzejczyk the first time around. With a better gas tank, Gadelha might be world champion right now. Kowalkiewicz likes to attack the legs and body, and she never slows down herself. Do not expect Gadelha to simply outclass Kowalkiewicz on the ground, either. She is at least skilled enough to survive a few bad positions in the first two rounds, all while making Gadelha expend energy en route to the third.

THE ODDS: Gadelha (-280), Kowalkiewicz (+220)

THE PICK: When Gadelha pours on the punches, Kowalkiewicz will respond in kind. The more she is attacked, the more she will press the attack herself. Kowalkiewicz is relentless -- and mean -- and her conditioning is top notch. Unless she finishes Kowalkiewicz, Gadelha will likely be in for a very tough third round. Up to that point, however, the athleticism and well-rounded skill of Gadelha will show. She is the cleaner combination puncher, the harder hitter, the stronger wrestler and the more experienced grappler. The pick is Gadelha by unanimous decision.

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