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Welterweights

Neil Magny (23-7) vs. Robbie Lawler (28-14)

ODDS: Magny (-250), Lawler (+210)

This fight should tell us a lot about Lawler, currently and going forward, but it is worth appreciating just what a gift this second run inside of the UFC was for “Ruthless Robbie.” When the UFC officially absorbed Strikeforce in 2013, Lawler’s return figured to be an interesting footnote and little else. It had been roughly a decade since Lawler was the impending Next Big Thing in the sport, only to wash out of the UFC; and while he had his fair share of success in the years that followed, his run inside Strikeforce saw him either look disinterested or ineffective. However, thanks to a cut to welterweight and some refocused training, Lawler suddenly went on the run towards UFC gold that many predicted years prior. A decision win over Rory MacDonald set him up for a title fight against Johny Hendricks once Georges St. Pierre decided to vacate the championship. Lawler narrowly lost that decision but still ended 2014 as welterweight champion, owing in part to a breakneck pace that saw him beat Jake Ellenberger and Matt Brown before going five more rounds with Hendricks, this time in victory. While it only lasted for two successful title defenses, Lawler’s championship reign has to go down among the best ever, if only because his rematch with MacDonald and fight against Carlos Condit were both epic wars that rank among the best bouts the sport has ever seen. Since dropping the title to Tyron Woodley in 2016, Lawler has not done much, even if he has not looked finished as a fighter. His 2017 bout against Donald Cerrone may wind up serving as a last hurrah of sorts. While it was not a particularly exciting fight, it did show off Lawler’s status as a violent genius, as he got off to a hot start and then managed to essentially take the entire second round off, gathering information that led him to a strong third round and a decision victory. Since then, Lawler has not really gotten the right fights to show his stuff—quick start and early stoppage loss to Ben Askren aside—as Rafael dos Anjos and Colby Covington applied both pace and grinding pressure for five rounds; like any gifted student, Lawler is only at his most engaged when opponents can give him a fun puzzle to solve. Magny should be able to provide the right kind of challenge to show that the former champion still has something left in the tank, but at 38 years old and coming in on a three-fight losing streak, the question still needs to be asked about whether or not Lawler does.

He has not reached nearly the highs that Lawler has over his career, but Magny’s own UFC run is also a testament to hard work and perseverance. Spawned by a subpar season of “The Ultimate Fighter,” Magny won his required fight against a castmate to stay on the UFC roster but did not show much in his subsequent two fights. However, Magny had the good fortune of having his struggles just as the UFC expanded to an overstuffed schedule. Running nearly every week, the UFC now needed bodies to fill those cards, and so Magny got another chance to show his stuff. His 2014 win over Gasan Umalatov was the best performance of his career, and that shockingly kickstarted a seven-fight winning streak that saw him crack the welterweight rankings. Magny’s resume is built more on quantity than quality—save for a 2015 win over Kelvin Gastelum—which has led to the perception that he is essentially the go-to name to call out for rising prospects that want to break into the rankings. Since coming back from some drug testing issues that caused him to miss all of 2019, Magny has shown that he can still turn back opponents who try to use him as a steppingstone: Jingliang Li and Anthony Rocco Martin did not get much done in what figured to be their breakout opportunities. Magny probably will not get over the hump to true contender status himself, but he should remain a going concern in this division and win a whole lot more often than he loses—something that would not have been predictable just a few years ago.

Magny’s win over Li resulted in a career-best performance where his boxing looked as sharp as ever, but with the victory over Martin, he went back to more of the same. Magny can strike from range and has an underrated clinch game, but there is not much danger or urgency. Peak Lawler obviously would have chewed up Magny here, so this all comes down to how much the former champion has slowed down compared to those highs. Dos Anjos provided a lot of similar concerns with a much greater level of difficulty, and Lawler managed to hold his own, albeit in a loss. The real question involves how much of Lawler’s flat performance against Covington was age versus a particularly exhausting style matchup. If the Covington fight was the sign that Lawler’s long career has finally caught up to him, then it is easy to see Magny being able to take the initiative to make this an ugly fight and coast to a lukewarm win. However, if Lawler is anything close to his old self, even the two-round strategy that led to his beating Cerrone should work: Get off to a hot start, regroup and then take the third round on the back of some smart adjustments. This may be a sentimental move, but it is difficult to rule out Lawler just yet. The pick is Lawler via decision.

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