Preview: UFC Fight Night 211 ‘Dern vs. Yan’

Welterweights

Randy Brown (15-4, 9-4 UFC) vs. Francisco Trinaldo (28-8, 18-7 UFC)

ODDS: Brown (-315), Trinaldo (+260)

Brown looks to finally be hitting his prime, so it is time for “Rude Boy” to prove he can turn his tools into a consistent run up the ladder. Brown was all physical potential when he was signed by the UFC late in 2015, and his athleticism carried him to enough easy wins to essentially learn on the job while on the roster. Eventually, Brown’s game coalesced into an interesting grab bag of skills, as he can hold his own just about anywhere as both a sharp striker and an underrated grappler. However, save for a breakout win over Bryan Barberena in 2019, Brown has yet to find the consistency to put together a truly dominant performance. All else being equal, it appears that Brown would rather keep his opponent at range and win a slow-paced striking match, but his inability to hold off adversaries often forces him to deal with them on his own terms. Nearly every Brown fight seems to contain at least one moment where his opponent can connect huge and take him completely out of his game. To his credit, Brown has evolved enough to the point that those moments have turned from clear losses to gutsy wins, but it would be nice to see him turn another corner as he faces stronger opposition like Trinaldo.

At 44 years old, Trinaldo is obviously diminished, but it is still impressive how much “Massaranduba” is a reasonable facsimile of his younger self. Already well into his 30s after a fan-favorite stint on the first season of “The Ultimate Fighter Brazil,” Trinaldo supplemented the powerful wrestling and grappling that marked his early career with an impressive counter-heavy striking approach, enough so to earn him a seven-fight winning streak that spanned from 2014 to 2016. However, just as his success got him some notice outside of his native country, Trinaldo’s run ended in a loss to Kevin Lee, slotting the Brazilian as a bit of a gatekeeper to the lightweight rankings until he moved to welterweight in 2021. Trinaldo’s striking output has generally dwindled in terms of volume—even with an already-patient approach—but he is still successful at making those strikes count and dragging his opponents into his type of fight, as he put on a surprisingly complete performance against Danny Roberts for his most recent win in May. Brown is entirely capable of handing Trinaldo a similar type of win with a few defensive lapses; and even with Brown serving as a better grappler than Roberts, Trinaldo still could find success with his wrestling. With that said, the bet is that Brown can string together enough offense to finally make Trinaldo pay for his slow pace on the scorecards. The pick is Brown via decision.

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Dern vs. Yan
Brown vs. Trinaldo
Barcelos vs. Jones
Yusuff vs. Shainis
Castaneda vs. Santos
Davis vs. Borshchev
The Prelims