Preview: UFC on ESPN 36 Prelims

Lightweights

Michael Johnson (19-17, 11-13 UFC) vs. Alan Patrick (15-3, 5-3 UFC)

ODDS: Johnson (-150), Patrick (+130)

Johnson has had a career with some impressively high highs and depressingly low lows, and this is certainly one of the low points, as “The Menace” finds himself needing to snap a four-fight losing streak. Johnson was shaping up to have a journeyman run—though he did manage to get a win over an early-career Tony Ferguson—before a breakout victory over Joe Lauzon in 2013, which seemed to be the launching pad he needed for a march towards contention. That was part of a four-fight winning streak that was snapped by a controversial loss to Beneil Dariush, but Johnson seemed prime to rebound against what appeared to be a sliding Nate Diaz; instead, it kicked off a run that showed the dizzying highs and lows Johnson is capable of. Diaz lured him into a brawl and thus a losing performance, after which Johnson rebounded with a stunning 95-second knockout of Dustin Poirier. That set up two of the more frustrating losses of Johnson’s career. He stunned Khabib Nurmagomedov early before falling victim to the Russian’s usual meat-grinder magic, then had Justin Gaethje on the ropes multiple times before getting knocked out in a 2017 “Fight of the Year” contender. That set the stage for a cut down to featherweight that did not accomplish much, and now back at lightweight for a few fights, Johnson is hard to trust. He almost always has some impressive flashes but gets thrown out of his rhythm badly at some point over his fights, usually when his opponent looks to wrestle. It is unclear if Patrick can derail Johnson, given that the Brazilian is also in the midst of a disheartening run. “Nuguette” was a bit of an underrated fighter at his peak, owing to a resume with long stretches of inactivity, but the Brazilian racked up wins with an unorthodox combination of wrestling and range striking—the package held together by his impressive athleticism. Now 38 years old, Patrick just has not been successful since a 2018 loss to Scott Holtzman. His wrestling no longer seems particularly effective, and what was once a neutralizing style now appears to be low-output and ineffective. Fifteen minutes still feels like a lot of time for Patrick to find something that can turn the momentum in his favor, but it is difficult to expect him to press the action enough to take advantage of an opening. However, given Johnson’s recent outings, it still would not be a shock if he does.

FEELY’s PREDICTION: It is not a confident choice, but the pick is Johnson via decision.

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