Preview: UFC on Fox 14

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MIDDLEWEIGHTS

Dan Henderson (30-12, 7-6 UFC) vs. Gegard Mousasi (35-5-2, 2-2 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: The legendary Henderson makes his return to middleweight after a rough recent run at 205 pounds. The venerable veteran has dropped four of his last six bouts, with the only two victories coming over Mauricio Rua, the latest by devastating knockout. Henderson draws fellow former Strikeforce light heavyweight champion Mousasi, who has alternated wins over Ilir Latifi and Mark Munoz with losses to Lyoto Machida and Ronaldo Souza. This might well be Henderson’s last fight, and it should be a good one.

Once known for his grinding work in the clinch as a dirty-boxing pioneer, Henderson has evolved into a skilled puncher who can end any fight in a heartbeat with one mighty swing of his right hand. There is no denying the obvious fact of Henderson’s decline. He is not as quick; his legendary chin has finally cracked; and some of the crafty tricks he once used to land that right hand have disappeared from his game.

Despite the awkward appearance of his style, Henderson remains one of the purest punchers in the sport, with a beautiful understanding of weight transfer and how to maximize the force in his shots. He works behind a probing jab, can land vicious right low kicks and uses his inside low kick to set up his brutal overhand right. His timing on the counter remains impeccable, if somewhat diminished from his prime. While it is a smaller part of his game than it once was, Henderson is still one of the greatest clinch fighters in the sport’s history and is perhaps the best ever at sneaking in hard punches and knees on entries and exits. His takedowns and takedown defense are less impressive than one would expect from an Olympian, but he is generally competent; the real weakness comes when Henderson is forced to grapple for extended periods, as he can be controlled on the mat and submitted.

Mousasi is an enigma. He has world-class skills in nearly every phase but has never really been able to put them all together into a coherent package. With nearly 12 years of professional experience under his belt, time is running out to do so. Crisp striking is the cornerstone of Mousasi’s game. He works behind a sharp, consistent jab as he stalks his opponent, throws stinging low and middle kicks and is almost impossible to hit cleanly. He lacks much in the way of power, however, and rarely pushes the pace or looks to set his feet and throw bombs. The clinch might actually be Mousasi’s best phase, as he owns slick trips and throws, hard knees and is difficult to control. Defensive wrestling has traditionally been Mousasi’s Achilles’ heel, but he has drastically improved over the last several years and only really struggles now against the cage. On the ground, Mousasi’s guard is venomous, with quick triangle-armbar chains and sweet sweeps, and he is even more dangerous from top position and in transition. The problem with all of this is that Mousasi lacks a single dominating skill set, and he does a poor job of phase-shifting between them, which makes him relatively predictable.

BETTING ODDS: Mousasi (-300), Henderson (+250)

THE PICK: I fear that Henderson has finally reached the twilight of his long and productive career. His puncher’s chance has grown slimmer and slimmer as his once-great physical gifts have declined, and against a slick defensive fighter like Mousasi, he will need every ounce of his craft to land the right hand. He is certainly capable of it -- Mousasi can be hit, especially on the counter -- but the balance of likelihood falls on Mousasi keeping range, peppering Henderson with his jab and breaking the clinch whenever possible. The pick is Mousasi by decision.

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