Preview: UFC 195 ‘Lawler vs. Condit’

Welterweights

Lorenz Larkin (16-4) vs Albert Tumenov (16-2)

THE MATCHUP: Since moving to welterweight, former light heavyweight Lorenz Larkin has looked like a destroyer, bringing his power to 170 pounds without losing any of the speed that made him such a dangerous striker in the bigger weight classes. Most of the problems that plagued Larkin before are still present. For one, he is still far too willing to back himself into the fence, though he has added a little more head movement to set up his lightning-quick counters.

As a striker, Larkin has always possessed an incredibly diverse array of techniques, including Superman elbows, jumping spinning back kicks and more. At his best, however, he has gone to work with short, straight punches and quick elbows in close, all set up off of lateral movement. In order to keep these weapons in play, Larkin has relied on remarkable balance to defend takedowns.

Tumenov is a more conventional striker and a far more reliable one. Operating equally well at all ranges, the Balkar boxer-puncher uses subtle angles to avoid his opponent’s offense and set up counters. Tumenov has a killer left hand, which he throws both as a hook and an uppercut. Tumenov is also a capable kicker at long range. His best skill is his ability to find openings in transitions. When the distance opens, he is ready to follow his opponent out of the pocket with a long right hand or head kick; when the gap closes, he shortens his shots to accommodate the new angles. Tumenov throws upward when the opponent ducks down and even grabs quick takedowns when the other man leaves himself off-balance.

THE ODDS: Tumenov (-235), Larkin (+200)

THE PICK: Like Alan Jouban, Tumenov’s most recent opponent, Larkin should be able to make this fight competitive and entertaining, using his speed and variety to answer Russian’s craft. Still, craft tends to prevail in the end, and Tumenov’s bag of tricks is deeper and better organized than most. He wins by knockout in the second round.

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