Preview: UFC 208 ‘Holm vs. de Randamie’

Middleweights

Ronaldo Souza (23-4) vs. Tim Boetsch (20-10)

THE MATCHUP: There is no need to mince words here. This is intended as a stay-busy fight for Souza, who is almost certainly next in line for a shot at the middleweight title. Many believed that Souza deserved the win over Yoel Romero at UFC 194, and now that Romero is set to challenge unlikely champion Michael Bisping, “Jacare” is in prime position to fulfill a lifelong dream. In the meantime, he will face an unranked opponent who has lost three of his last five bouts.

Should “Jacare” overlook this fight, however, Boetsch will be more than ready to surprise him. Boetsch is known as something of a comeback artist. His chin is not what it once was, but he is still willing to eat shots if it means getting the chance to deliver one of his own; and with thudding power in both hands, all it takes is one for Boetsch to end the fight. It is an extremely unlikely result, but Boetsch specializes in turning the unlikely into reality. To wit, he is actually riding a two-fight winning streak into the cage.

“Jacare” is of course a phenomenal grappler. Alongside Demian Maia, he is one of the most skilled and most decorated Brazilian jiu-jitsu players in MMA today, with 16 wins via submission. Souza is also a credible striker with a boxing bent, though he tends to do a lot more stalking and plodding than actual punching. He hits hard and places his shots well, but he rarely lands more than 15 punches per round. Nonetheless, he continues to impress with each performance, and he is being set up for victory here.

Souza will likely look to wrestle Boetsch from the get-go, and he would be well served to do so. Boetsch has a strongman’s approach to wrestling at times, and his inattention to technical details makes him easier to take down than a man with his wrestling background should be. Compared to his 58 percent rate of takedown defense, “Jacare” hits 3.48 of the nearly eight takedowns he shoots per 15 minutes. Interestingly, FightMetric also rates Souza’s takedown defense at 58 percent, but it has been six and a half years since anyone has taken him down. With credentials like his, why would they?

THE ODDS: Souza (-475), Boetsch (+380)

THE PICK: I am always wary of Boetsch, and middleweights around the world would do well to watch him with the same cautious eye. Boetsch has tremendous power and a fearsome will to win. Given their respective styles, Souza will likely take down Boetsch and tie him in knots on the ground, just as he does to everyone else and just as Luke Rockhold did to “The Barbarian” in April 2014. We know, however, that “Jacare” can be hurt, and he has been knocked out twice in the past -- and nearly knocked out much more recently than that. I would advise him to be careful, but the pick is Souza by first-round submission.

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