UFC 166 ‘Velasquez vs. Dos Santos 3’ Preview

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Lightweights

Gilbert Melendez (21-3, 0-1 UFC) vs. Diego Sanchez (24-5, 13-5 UFC)

The Matchup: One could watch Melendez’s lightweight title bout with Benson Henderson at UFC on Fox 7 multiple times and score it differently after each viewing. It was that close, as evidenced by the varying scorecards of media members tracked by MMADecisions.com. Losing one razor-thin decision -- Melendez’s first defeat since 2008 -- should not hurt “El Nino’s” standing in the championship picture too much, provided he takes care of business against Sanchez.

A former 155-pound title challenger, Sanchez returned to the division for the first time since 2009 at UFC on Fuel TV 8, where he captured a somewhat contentious split verdict over Takanori Gomi. Sanchez has long relied on his pace, heart and aggression to carry him to victory, something that has helped him in the eyes of the judges in controversial triumphs over the likes of Gomi and Martin Kampmann. Unfortunately for “The Dream,” it will be difficult to outwork Melendez, who has fought for 25 minutes in five of his last six appearances.

While Sanchez was able to land a pair of takedowns on Gomi in the first round of their March encounter, his wrestling was shut down for the bout’s remaining 10 minutes. Additionally, Gomi was able to keep the Jackson’s Mixed Martial Arts product off-balance by using a consistent jab and working the body. Both rounds two and three were closely contested, but it is possible that a late Sanchez flurry in round three swayed opinions.

Melendez has improved his standup considerably since his early Strikeforce tenure, and he figures to have success landing multi-punch combinations in the pocket against Sanchez. However, he cannot become too comfortable and coast during later moments in rounds. A series of clean strikes can easily be negated by Sanchez’s unrelenting pressure and aggression, even if the New Mexican is not consistently landing.

When he was at his best, Sanchez overwhelmed foes with his wrestling, setting a rapid pace in scrambles and transitions while landing flurries of ground-and-pound. More recently, that approach, which relied more on brute force than technique, has been stymied. Since he cannot count on draining Melendez’s cardio, he must be creative in using his striking to set up takedowns and clinches. Josh Thomson had some success in executing trip takedowns against Melendez in their meeting under the Strikeforce banner; perhaps Sanchez can do the same if he finds himself getting outpointed on the feet.

The Pick: Thanks to his will and ability to absorb damage, Sanchez is never out of a fight. However, Melendez has more than enough gas to survive 15 minutes with “The Ultimate Fighter 1” winner. Melendez wins the majority of the exchanges and mixes in some timely takedowns to take a decision.

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