UFC Fight Night ‘Jacare vs. Mousasi 2’ Preview

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Heavyweights

Derrick Lewis (11-2, 2-0 UFC) vs. Matt Mitrione (7-3, 7-3 UFC)

The Matchup: This is an interesting pairing of mid-tier heavyweights. Mitrione, a former NFL defensive lineman, has carved out a nice second career for himself as an athletic and still-evolving mixed martial artist. He attempts to stop the rapid rise of Lewis, another former football player who has already notched two impressive knockout wins in the UFC in his first five months with the promotion.

Lewis’ game is all about physicality. He is an enormous heavyweight who cuts weight to reach the 265-pound limit, and while he is not particularly fleet-footed, he is unbelievably and brutally strong, packing crushing power in his punches. At distance, Lewis is fairly plodding as he throws low kicks to find the range, though he can cover a fair bit of ground very quickly when he decides to explode into hard single punches or short combinations. His striking is mostly a bridge to infighting range, where he displays surprisingly smooth clinch entries and nice timing on reactive takedowns. Although he is not an outstanding technical wrestler, his raw strength allows him to power opponents to the ground with a variety of singles, doubles and trips and to throw go-to-sleep punches from top position.

Also, Lewis' size and balance make him difficult to take down, and he consistently delivers hard shots while sprawling.

Under the direction of the coaches at the Blackzilians, Mitrione has gone from an athlete who happened to be fighting to a true mixed martial artist. A competent defensive wrestler and just-good-enough grappler, Mitrione’s strength is striking. Exceptionally light on his feet for such a big man, Mitrione covers distance well at range, takes smooth, clean angles and packs big power in his punches and kicks from his southpaw stance. He can be baited into exchanges, which take away his strengths and highlight his lack of head movement and other defensive skills; but by and large, he is a handful for just about anybody at range.

Betting Odds: Lewis (-135), Mitrione (+105)

The Pick: If Mitrione uses his angles and movement at range while avoiding a close-quarters brawl, this fight should be his to lose, as Lewis simply lacks the tools and variety to win a technical kickboxing match. Mitrione has had problems in the past, however, maintaining that kind of game plan for extended periods. In fact, the common thread in all of Mitrione’s losses is an opponent who can time his strikes, get the clinch or a takedown and work him against the fence. Unfortunately for Mitrione, that is Lewis’ bread and butter. Lewis wins by knockout in round one.

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