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Welterweights

#12 WW | Belal Muhammad (18-3, 9-3 UFC) vs. #9 WW | Demian Maia (28-10, 22-10 UFC)

ODDS: Muhammad (-230), Maia (+190)

Is this the last ride for Maia? He has long said he would retire at the end of this current contract—it wraps up with this fight—though in recent months, he has been open to the idea of one more fight if this goes well. Either way, we are nearing the end of a remarkably impressive career for someone whose skillset was often written off as outdated. A decorated Brazilian jiu-jitsu player, Maia immediately became one of the best submission artists in the UFC upon landing in the promotion in 2007. He kicked off his UFC career with five straight submission wins, including a beautiful triangle choke against Chael Sonnen. However, 2010 saw Maia get absolutely frozen by the striking stylings of Anderson Silva in an infamously terrible affair, which soon gave way to “K-1 Maia.” He put all of his efforts into his striking, and while they surely paid off some in the long run, his newfound approach completely neutralized all of the things that made him a special fighter. Thankfully, after plateauing at middleweight, Maia cut down to 170 pounds and got back to what brought him to the dance. With his additional physical advantages against smaller opponents, Maia also got a chance to show off the secret weapon that has made him such a perennially effective fighter. The Brazilian is a strong wrestler, allowing him to dictate the terms of his fights and methodically cut through his opponents’ defenses on the mat. That eventually led to a seven-fight winning streak he capped with a victory over Jorge Masvidal and, in turn, a 2017 title shot against Tyron Woodley—something previously unthinkable given the terrible memories that lingered from the Silva fight. Unfortunately, the Woodley bout was similarly interminable. Maia was game but completely unable to outwrestle Woodley, and the champion was content to coast his way to an uninspiring win. That led to a somewhat depressing run where Maia was overpowered and outworked by the new generation of strong wrestlers in the welterweight division, but he rebounded with a shockingly effectively 2020 campaign, racking up wins over Lyman Good, Anthony Rocco Martin and Ben Askren. A battle with Gilbert Burns just prior to the coronavirus pandemic shutdown did not go Maia’s way—he was quickly knocked out—and it will be interesting to see exactly what he has left in the tank at 43 years old.

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Muhammad’s transition to the UFC was an interesting proposition back in 2016. As a fighter who got by on reading and breaking down his opponents, he seemed much more suited to being a regional champion with five rounds to work rather than someone stuck in three-round undercard bouts. However, after a rough start to his UFC career, “Remember The Name” has navigated the Octagon waters quite nicely. Muhammad throws out a shockingly frequent and consistent level of volume that has allowed him to rack up clean wins, and his June 2020 victory over Good showed an impressive ability to play with range and become more of a sniper as needed. There does seem to be a clear ceiling against opponents who can meet Muhammad’s technical acumen with a much higher level of athleticism, but he has proven to be an impressively well-prepared fighter who is very rarely out of a bout. This looks like it could wind up as a breakout year for Muhammad. After a scintillating performance against Dhiego Lima in February, he stepped in on a quick turnaround for a main event against Leon Edwards, albeit one that ended with Muhammad suffering a brutal eye poke. Thankfully, Muhammad’s profile has not suffered, as he gets a huge opportunity here for his best win yet.

Maia’s game plan is clear at this point, centered almost entirely around takedowns and his grappling game. It will be interesting to see what Muhammad can do with that, if only because he has not been in much of a position to test his wrestling. Muhammad just has not faced a diet of fighters looking to take him down, and that never became much of a factor during the brief encounter with Edwards. If Muhammad fights his typical come-forward style, Maia will certainly get his chances to test him, which in turn means there is always the risk that the Brazilian can score a dominant win by submission. However, as Maia has aged, all the ancillary parts of his style have essentially become ineffective, which means that is basically his only path to a victory; and even in winning performances, Maia’s cardio for three rounds has become more and more of a concern. Given that Muhammad looks to be a fighter who game plans quite well for his opponents, there is a chance he switches his approach entirely and takes a more evasive route that should still lead him to a win on the feet. The pick is Muhammad via decision.

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