Preview: UFC Fight Night 200 Main Card

Light Heavyweights

NR | Brendan Allen (17-5, 5-2 UFC) vs. NR | Sam Alvey (33-16-1, 10-11-1 UFC)

ODDS: Allen (-375), Alvey (+305)

Winless since 2018, Alvey is still hanging around. Already a well-traveled vet by the time the UFC picked him up in 2014, Alvey found a surprising amount of success for a few years, banking on a low-output style that focused entirely on hunting for the knockout. When Alvey’s approach did not work, his commitment to inactivity made for some terrible fights. For a while, it was a nice deal for “Smilin’ Sam,” who would score quick knockouts and fight as often as possible, turning his career into a series of paid vacations with his wife—also his chief cornerman—in tow. By 2019, the situation had clearly turned south for Alvey. Whether it was an evolution of the sport, better scouting of his weapons or slipping just a bit in terms of athleticism and durability, he is no longer able to take advantage of the openings that his opponents provide. Alvey has put in some obvious work to change his approach and throw more volume, even taking top light heavyweight prospect Da Un Jung to a draw in late 2020, but it has not been enough to stop a slide of what is now seven straight fights without a win. Initially slated to face a few different opponents on this date, Alvey now tackles Allen on just a few days’ notice. Allen had a solid regional record, but it was still a surprise when he charged up the middleweight ladder almost instantly upon his UFC debut, rattling off three impressive wins against Kevin Holland, Tom Breese and Kyle Daukaus. “All In” typically has an approach that favors pressure and aggression over all else, usually with the goal of sparking some grappling exchanges. That hit a clear wall against Sean Strickland, who kept the fight standing and made Allen pay for his lack of defense. That has since left Allen with somewhat of the opposite problem of Alvey, attempting to channel his style into something more mindful. There have been some gains on that front, with Allen putting together two straight victories before losing to Chris Curtis in December; the potential for any lapses is what brings some interest to this fight. Still, while Allen is open to getting hit, it is hard to pick Alvey to thread the needle and score a knockout. Alvey is just not active enough, and Allen should at least keep up the pace to the point of making him uncomfortable through 15 minutes. While he could eventually swamp Alvey for a late finish, the pick is Allen by clear decision.



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