Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Hunt vs. Mir’

Middleweights

Daniel Kelly (10-1) vs Antonio Carlos Jr. (5-1)

THE MATCHUP: The UFC has an odd habit of filling international shows with matchups in which the local fighters seem destined to lose. Joe Silva continues that proud tradition here, pitting middle-aged Australian Dan Kelly against a 25 year-old phenom in Carlos.

Kelly has certainly proven himself capable of surprising. He was a 5-to-2 underdog when he faced Steve Montgomery in the UFC’s last antipodean venture, and he came through with flying colors, outstriking and outgrappling his much larger opponent with a tenacity that belied his 38 years. Montgomery was a flawed fighter, though. His porous defense and crackable chin were well-known, and most acknowledged that boot-leather Kelly had a real shot of beating him. Carlos is another matter entirely. With a massive frame for the division, Carlos is as strong as he is explosive. Capable of covering distance with surprising speed, whether shooting for a takedown or lacing a right hand through his opponent’s guard, he is already a solid middleweight with just two and a half years of pro experience. His potential to improve is massive.

A four-time Olympian in judo, Kelly is difficult to take down, and Carlos is not yet a good enough wrestler to do so consistently. Kelly is slow of both foot and hand, however, and Carlos should be able to implement the kind of long-range striking game that Montgomery was expected to employ back in November. Carlos has also been working with the folks at American Top Team, so it is not at all unlikely that he comes into this fight with much improved wrestling and puts Kelly on his back, where his creative jiu-jitsu gives him a massive edge.

THE ODDS: Carlos (-500), Kelly (+400)

THE PICK: Prospects need wins, and Carlos is undoubtedly keen to get one after a disappointing no-contest in his last fight. Do not put it past Kelly to bite down and start slinging Hail Marys, but this is Carlos’ fight to lose. He wins by second-round TKO.

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