Preview: UFC on ESPN 48 ‘Strickland vs. Magomedov’

Women’s Flyweights

Melissa Gatto (8-1-2, 2-1 UFC) vs. Ariane Lipski (15-8, 4-5 UFC)

ODDS: Gatto (-210), Lipski (+180)

Lipski may yet live up to the expectations put upon her heading into her UFC debut; it just might take longer than expected. After a highly successful regional career, the expectation was that Lipski would hit the ground running in a wide-open flyweight division and she was matched accordingly, drawing Joanne Wood for her first trip to the Octagon. That proved to be too tough an ask, and it took a while for Lipski to find her footing from there. She had no problem living up to her “Queen of Violence” nickname, but that focus on aggression and offense left a ton of defensive holes that opponents were able to exploit. A September 2021 win over Mandy Bohm was the first sign that Lipski might finally be turning a corner, as she applied some effective patience over the course of three rounds, and from there, the hope was that she had finally channeled her physical tools into something resembling a complete fighter. However, her next bout saw her quickly get lured into a brawl against Priscila Cachoeira and get knocked out for her efforts. Lipski rebounded with the best performance of her career in March, handling a steady veteran in J.J. Aldrich. It seems to show a clear through line in Lipski’s career at this point. Given an athletic advantage and an ability to lead the dance, she looks outstanding, but there are still some concerns as far as keeping her cool in chaos. There is little to do but wait for Lipski to put in enough experience until things finally click, and Gatto is an interesting next test. In contrast to Lipski, Gatto came to the UFC with barely any expectations. Injuries and a drug suspension delayed her debut for over two years, and her pre-UFC footage showed a one-dimensional submission specialist who seemed to have little business in a major promotion. However, Gatto looked like a completely different fighter upon finally making her debut in 2021. A cut down to flyweight unlocked a new level of physicality and athleticism, and she apparently put the time off to good use, developing a surprisingly effective striking game. Gatto is not bulletproof by any means, as she is still able to get bullied by some of the stronger athletes at 125 pounds, but she has been consistently aggressive and proven difficult to control. This may be another fight where Lipski’s athletic advantages give her enough room to squeak things out on the margins, but the lean is that Gatto can make enough things happen to eventually lure the former KSW champion into something resembling her old form, at which point she should be able to find a finish. The pick is Gatto via second-round submission.

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Strickland vs. Magomedov
Ismagulov vs. Dawson
Morales vs. Griffin
Gatto vs. Lipski
Bonfim vs. St. Denis
Ferreira vs. Ruziboev
The Prelims