Preview: UFC 291 ‘Poirier vs. Gaethje 2’

Welterweights

Kevin Holland (24-9, 11-6 UFC) vs. #12 WW | Michael Chiesa (16-6, 11-6 UFC)

ODDS: Holland (-145), Chiesa (+125)

After five fights, Holland’s run down at welterweight remains a bit hard to parse. Holland had a breakout back half of 2020 that saw him rise to fringe contender and potential star status. His willingness to take fights on short notice kept him busy and front of mind as the UFC scrambled to throw together cards during the coronavirus pandemic, and his tendency towards trash talk during fights made him stand out in mostly silent arenas. After five wins in less than seven months, “Trailblazer” headed into 2021 set to complete his rise, but instead, he struggled to find much success during a winless year. Derek Brunson and Marvin Vettori neutralized Holland handily with their wrestling, and an attempted rebound against Kyle Daukaus quickly ended in a no contest thanks to a brutal clash of heads. Holland subsequently announced that he would be making a full-time cut down to 170 pounds—a bit unexpected given that he was already a tall and reedy middleweight. However, now that Holland appears able to make the weight with no issue, it is hard to tell how much he will succeed going forward. During his breakout at middleweight, Holland was a crafty striker who was able to mix things up with some wrestling, but that technical depth has gone out the window in recent years, as he mostly blitzes forward while winging strikes and leaning on his size advantage to see him through. That has already hit a ceiling against Khamzat Chimaev and Stephen Thompson, but it has gone swimmingly well for Holland otherwise. Even if his last fight against Santiago Ponzinibbio resulted in a generally poor performance, Holland brought enough dynamism and danger to the table that he was still able to score a third-round knockout. Whether or not Holland can eventually find his way into the welterweight title picture is still an open question that this fight against Chiesa should answer, since “The Ultimate Fighter 15” winner has the type of wrestling and grappling that could make this a rough night for Holland.

A fan favorite going back to his inspirational arc on “The Ultimate Fighter” in 2012, Chiesa was a slow burn as a success story down at lightweight. Even at its best, Chiesa’s striking is mostly functional, but he continued to rack up wins as a submission specialist until he found his way to the fringes of the title picture. After clear losses to Kevin Lee and Anthony Pettis, the latter of which saw Chiesa miss weight after a particularly rough cut, “Maverick” decided to ply his trade up at welterweight and immediately found success with a four-fight winning streak. Chiesa has certainly filled out up at 170 pounds and became more effective as a bully in his run up the division, but a two-fight losing streak has him staring at a potential ceiling once again. Only his win over Neil Magny looks particularly relevant at welterweight at this point, and Chiesa got out-grappled by Vicente Luque and overpowered by Sean Brady in those last two affairs, leaving him without much of a backup plan. Chiesa should have a path to his best weapons this time around thanks to his focused approach and Holland’s suspect takedown defense, but it will be interesting to see if he can actually get over the finish line for the win. If not, it is just as easy to see Holland swamping Chiesa with enough wild volume to score a stoppage given the former middleweight’s comfort on the feet. Holland is a solid grappler and might just be too gigantic for Chiesa to fully control, so the bet is that he can find his way to his feet enough times to pull out another wild win. The pick is Holland via second-round stoppage.

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Poirier vs. Gaethje
Blachowicz vs. Pereira
Thompson vs. Pereira
Green vs. Ferguson
Holland vs. Chiesa
The Prelims