Preview: UFC on ESPN 11 ‘Blaydes vs. Volkov’ Main Card

Lightweights

Roosevelt Roberts (10-1) vs. Jim Miller (31-14)

ODDS: Roberts (-225), Miller (+185)

Miller and Donald Cerrone are in a battle for the most fights in UFC history, and Miller will tie the ledger here after he steps into the Octagon for the 35th time. Miller has obviously slowed down in the last few years, but it has been a surprisingly soft landing for someone who spent his career having wars as often as possible. Miller has had some rough stretches, but his losses have typically been to strong competition; and only his 2018 defeat to Dan Hooker was a true blowout. Even then, there has always been the X factor of Miller struggling with an initially undiagnosed case of Lyme disease. Each time Miller has endured a particularly tough run, he has adjusted his treatment and looked closer to his old self. His February loss to Scott Holtzman was probably the worst of the bunch, if only because Holtzman has not been a contender in the past and does not seem to have the upside to get there. Nevertheless, Miller still hung tough for three rounds against a more powerful athlete. Even in recent years, Miller has had enough dominant wins over younger fighters to show that there is still a lot left in the tank, even if it is as a gatekeeper to top prospects. Speaking of which, the New Jersey native will serve as the veteran test for Roberts in a 160-pound catchweight feature.

Roberts is definitely a talent on whom the UFC is high. UFC President Dana White has mentioned him as a potential star, which seems a bit odd, not because Roberts lacks the talent to become a contender but because he is not the type of dynamic finisher the promotion usually tends to push. Roberts is still in the process of building things out from his clinch game, where he can use his reedy frame to cause some havoc and eventually slip on some sort of choke. He does tend to struggle against opponents with more physical parity. Thomas Gifford did not offer much outside of size, which was enough to slow down Roberts, and he eventually suffered his first loss against a tough veteran in Vinc Pichel. To that end, Roberts is developing a striking game that takes more advantage of his long frame, and he has shown a willingness to drown his opponent in volume, even if it is not particularly effective just yet. After a dominant win over Brok Weaver just three weeks ago, Roberts was ready for another step up in competition, and Miller got the call.

This is an excellent test for Roberts, if only because Miller still has both the physical strength and veteran savvy to shut down his clinch game. However, Miller’s 2017 bout with Dustin Poirier was the last time he showed he could keep up for 15 minutes at a strong pace. That is going to be his issue here. Miller should have success early and may even take the first round, but as Roberts simply gives him more and more things with which to deal, it should be enough to slow down the veteran and allow the prospect to take over. It may not be an overwhelming win, but this figures to be a good step forward for Roberts. The pick is Roberts via decision.

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