Preview: UFC on Fox 21 ‘Maia vs. Condit’

Here is where I designate my special picks for this card, for degenerate gamblers and all manner of hardcore fight fans who just cannot seem to squeeze enough fight analysis into the day:

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Legend

BEST VALUE: This fighter’s chances of winning are far greater than the betting lines suggest. Bang for your buck.

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CAN’T MISS: My pick for “Fight of the Night,” though not necessarily the kind of slobberknocker that usually earns that honor. Whether technical masterpiece or mutually assured destruction, this bout should be well worth the price of admission.

LIVE DOG: This fighter should probably be at even odds or better, but for whatever reason, he or she is not. Everyone loves an underdog story, but only when the underdog wins.

SURE THING: The lock. If any fight on this card is predetermined, it is this one. The only question: If he or she was always going to win, does the victor still have free will?

SMOKE BREAK: Don’t smoke, kids, but for those of you who can’t resist lighting up mid-event, it is probably safe to do so during this marvel of matchmaking.

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BEST VALUE: Jim Miller. Joe Lauzon’s recent wins have been more impressive than Miller’s, but his loss to Miller was fairly one-sided. Miller may not be able to keep up the same pace, but Lauzon has always struggled to win as the time ticks past. Miller is currently a +120 underdog.

LIVE DOG: Demian Maia. The odds are close -- just +100 for Maia -- but he arguably deserves to be the favorite here. Condit is 4-2 in his last six fights, and Maia is riding a credible five-fight winning streak, having bested men like Matt Brown, Gunnar Nelson and Neil Magny. I can see a Condit win, but Maia is a tough out for anybody, especially fighters with suspect takedown defense.

SURE THING: Chad Laprise. Thibault Gouti is tough and aggressive, but he lacks the polish that makes Laprise such an excellent kickboxer. Laprise has struggled with fighters more athletic and powerful than him, but Gouti is neither of those things. Unfortunately, Laprise is currently sitting pretty as a -265 favorite -- not an attractive bet. Paige VanZant deserves a mention, as well, but her game is less consistent than Laprise’s.

CAN’T MISS: Anthony Pettis vs. Charles Oliveira. Elbows, knees and kicks, oh my. Pettis always puts on an entertaining show, even when he is losing, and the same can be said for Oliveira. It is rare that two fighters so capable of producing a sudden, shocking finish meet face-to-face, and the ground game stands to be every bit as entertaining as the striking. Watch this sucker. DVR it. Watch it again.

SMOKE BREAK: Kevin Casey vs. Sam Alvey. I’m a big Alvey fan, but the man has a reputation as a passive fighter. He is as pure a counterpuncher as you will find in the UFC, and that has often resulted in a staring contest. Casey will likely give Alvey his chin at some point, but if he backs off when he feels his gas tank starting to drain, as he did against Elvis Mutapcic, Alvey may have difficulty pulling the trigger. I’ll be watching, but I’m a masochist.

Connor Ruebusch is an analyst of striking and boxing technique for Sherdog.com, as well as BloodyElbow.com and BadLeftHook.com. He has written hundreds of articles examining fighting form and strategy, and he is not done yet. Every Wednesday he talks about the finer points of face-punching on his podcast Heavy Hands. Though he dabbles in fantasy MMA, he is not a regular gambler, nor is he an expert in the field. If you use these predictions as a betting guide, please do so in combination with your own best judgment and a healthy pinch of salt. It is your money.