Preview: UFC 217 ‘Bisping vs. St. Pierre’

Heavyweights

Curtis Blaydes (8-1) vs. Alexey Oleynik (55-10-1)

ODDS: Blaydes (-380), Oleynik (+315)

ANALYSIS: This sort of UFC heavyweight acid test typically requires a little more analysis, but this bout is unique in its complexion. Yes, this is Blaydes’ showcase fight to lose, but perhaps those odds should not be so steep. Even after nearly 70 pro bouts and 21 years in the pro MMA game, Oleynik cannot be trifled with. His esoteric and bizarre submission game may seem like a low-percentage laughingstock, until you realize how many legitimate heavyweights he has hit with no-gi Ezekiel chokes -- a technique that should only be theoretical without a kimono top -- or a scarf-hold neck crank that has not been used to such impact since Mark Coleman two decades ago. Oleynik lacks for takedowns and cardio, yet he possesses a simian-like 80-inch reach, the same as Blaydes, and traffics in supposedly laughable submissions that can kill the mockery in a hurry. Oleynik in January pulled guard to try his Ezekiel choke and wound up finishing it despite being full mounted by Viktor Pesta; and he found his way onto Travis Browne’s back more than once in July, eventually choking him out for the biggest win of his career. Blaydes is an incredible natural athlete, a junior college national champion who seemingly stumbled into this sport. When “Razor” was preparing for his bout with present top contender Francis Ngannou, he was still training at a local UFC Gym franchise just outside Chicago. Now with Elevation Fight Team, he has shown steady improvement each step of the way, even if his July enconter with Daniel Omielanczuk proved to be a huge learning experience. Still, Blaydes’ superior athleticism, fitness and wrestling should allow him to dictate whether this is a protracted kickboxing bout or a ground affair. The physically imposing Blaydes remains the better conditioned athlete to complete either task, even if one is much dicier than the other. Assuming the prospect does not wish to tempt fate, possibly becoming yet another Ezekiel choke victim, he sprawls and brawls, exhausts Oleynik and wins a valuable 15-minute verdict.

Light Heavyweights

Corey Anderson (9-3) vs. Ovince St. Preux (21-10)

ODDS: St. Preux (-160), Anderson (+140)

ANALYSIS: Despite how many folks in the MMA sphere continue to mock Anderson and his “Beastin’ 25/8” nickname, they seem to invest an awful lot of faith in the man. He is admittedly still a prospect, yet continues to ask the question of how long you can hold fast to the idea of a developing fighter reaching his supposed potential. Anderson won a season of “The Ultimate Fighter,” just turned 28 and is certainly a plus-athlete, all of which has led folks to assume that he will naturally blossom into a top-10 light heavyweight, especially given the generally moribund nature of the division outside the UFC’s top eight 205ers or so. Meanwhile, St. Preux is 34 and seems to be the fighter he will be until he retires, creating the idea that there is room for growth in Anderson and this may lead him by OSP. The problem: In Anderson’s wins over the last three years and change, he has never really shown the growth or skill development for which others have hoped, making his maturation into a top-flight light heavyweight seem like more of a pipe dream. St. Preux is not a dynamite wrestler, which seems like it gives Anderson some quarter -- until you realize that most of the Rockton, Illinois, native’s takedowns come from the clinch, where St. Preux excels, both in dealing out damage and making foes carry his enormous frame. Anderson continues to struggle at creating meaningful offense when his wrestling does not dominate and he fails to find himself on top. St. Preux is not a great technician, but he lands unorthodox strikes both from range and inside, and he finds ways to thwart many technically superior wrestlers with size and athleticism alone. If we stay at range, this is St. Preux landing his bizarre collection of wild southpaw punches and out-of-rhythm kicks. If we spend a prolonged amount of time in the clinch, it is Anderson struggling to get his offense going against the former University of Tennessee linebacker while wasting energy trying to suck him down from the clinch to the mat. No Jason Von Flue tribute this time around, but St. Preux will get his hand raised, either via decision or by knocking out a fatigued Anderson.

Bantamweights

Ricardo Lucas Ramos (10-1) vs. Aiemann Zahabi (7-0)

ODDS: Ramos (-185), Zahabi (+160) ANALYSIS: Nepotism or even just the right gym connections can get you far in MMA, but evidently, they cannot always make you a betting favorite, as the undefeated Zahabi, younger brother of Tristar MMA head trainer Firas Zahabi, enters his second Octagon encounter as a decent underdog to once-beaten Brazilian prospect Ramos. This betting line seems very much contingent on the first Octagon bouts for both men. “Carcacinha” debuted in February as a slight underdog to savvy Japanese grappler Michinori Tanaka, dropping him early, thwarting his takedowns for 10 minutes and showing his striking and grappling flexibility. Just two weeks after Ramos’ debut, Zahabi took the UFC cage for the first time, winning a unanimous decision of his own over Brazilian Reginaldo Vieira but not without being forced to scramble up off the mat multiple times. It seems like this hitch in Zahabi’s takedown defense is the primary culprit in casting him as the underdog to the 22-year-old Ramos. Zahabi’s takedown defense appears to be the weakest part of his overall game, yet Ramos is not any kind of powerhouse wrestler. He thrives in scrambles, which may actually be of benefit to Zahabi here. On top of that, Ramos’ cardio flagged badly in the last round against Tanaka, who outgrappled him easily in the final frame despite the lead the Brazilian had put together. Zahabi slowly stalks forward, pressing his foes before opening up with wide-casting punch combinations and kicks behind them. Yes, his striking could be cleaner and straighter, but the Tristar Gym product lands accurately and in number, and he mixes in strikes beyond his punches. Ramos, despite nearly knocking out Tanaka with his counter right in their bout, is not typically a potent striker, relying on counter opportunities to load up with his long right hand. Yes, he is more dynamic and creates more offense than Zahabi does because of his scrambling, but Zahabi’s real bugaboo seems to be issues of wrestling control; Ramos is not going to take down Zahabi and play position but rather aggressively look for submissions, as he always does. This will give Zahabi the chance to escape, take dominant positions and restore the fight to its feet, where, despite his often looping punches, he is far more polished and throws in combination, as opposed to the entirely counter-oriented Ramos. The young Brazilian will likely scramble to dominant positions and flash submission threats over 15 minutes, but this is almost preferential to Zahabi, who can use these sacrifices as a means to get on top or back to his feet. I expect three rounds of consistent back-and-forth, but Zahabi’s harder strikes, especially his right cross, and Ramos’ desire to seek the finish at the expense of position, will maintain the underdog’s unbeaten record. Zahabi via razor-thin decision is the pick in an entertaining, up-down affair.