Preview: UFC Fight Night 167 ‘Anderson vs. Blachowicz 2’

Welterweights

NR | Tim Means (29-11-1, -265) vs. NR | Daniel Rodriguez (10-1, +225): After knocking out Thiago Alves in December, Means asked for a quick turnaround for a fight in his home state, and the UFC granted his wish. Means was initially slated to face Ramazan Emeev, but with the latter pulling out, the veteran welterweight gets a much more entertaining opponent in Rodriguez. A Dana White’s Contender Series alum, Rodriguez is a perfectly fine fighter, but he is likely out of his depth here. Rodriguez looks to be at his best when he can dictate the terms of his fights, and he does not seem to have much to offer that will discourage Means from marching him down and bringing the pain. Means has been slowing down in recent years, but his lone knockout loss to Niko Price likely says more about Price’s power than anything, and while he looked quite hittable against Alves, he also managed to quickly turn around and finish things. Means is 35 years old and has had both a hard career and a hard life, but unless this is where the bottom drops out, this looks like his fight to lose. The pick is Means via second-round stoppage.

Bantamweights

NR | Nathaniel Wood (16-3, -165) vs. #13 BW | John Dodson (20-11, +145): This interesting crossroads fight is one of the highlights of this preliminary card. Dodson has been a frustrating fighter over the years, to say the least. Perennially a top flyweight during his time at 125 pounds, “The Magician” was capable of some impressive fits of violence but would typically do a whole lot of nothing before springing into action. After being unable to get past Demetrious Johnson in two tries, the Albuquerque, New Mexico, native decided to ply his trade at bantamweight, and returns have been somewhat middling. Dodson is still quick, but a combination of the move to 135 pounds and age sapping his athleticism has left him to frustrate rather than finish his opponents, leading to a lot of narrow losses. To his credit, Dodson did beat Pedro Munhoz in 2018 and has stayed tough against opponents like Petr Yan and Jimmie Rivera, but now that his ceiling has been established, the questions have started to focus on exactly when the floor is going to drop out. Wood should help provide some clarity for exactly where Dodson stands, as the Englishman is a rising but beatable prospect. Wood can do a little bit of everything. He has some fast hands, even if he can be caught with some strong counters, and he might be at his best when he can outwrestle his opponents and hunt for submissions. He is not a high-level athlete and may not have one particularly elite skill on which to fall back, which may keep him just short of title contention. However, “The Prospect” should be able to establish himself as one of Britain’s better fighters in the years ahead. Dodson is a tricky matchup. He still has his speed and should be particularly tough to take down, which means Wood needs to rely on his kickboxing game. If this was the Dodson of a few years ago, the Englishman would be in a lot more trouble since Wood is hittable and Dodson can uncork some sudden and powerful strikes. However, that one-shot knockout ability just does not seem to be there at this point. Dodson should be able to neutralize a lot of Wood’s best skills, so this may not be particularly exciting, but the pick is for Wood to earn a decision and keep moving up the ladder.

Lightweights

NR | Scott Holtzman (13-3, -155) vs. NR | Jim Miller (31-13, +135): With this appearance, Miller will have literally had as many UFC fights as anyone, but it is still surprisingly hard to peg exactly how much the lightweight veteran has left in the tank. He has had two recent slides, but both of those are explained away easily enough. The first was apparently due to an undiagnosed case of Lyme disease, and once that was successfully treated, Miller bounced back for a bit before getting fed to the wolves and losing five of his next six bouts. However, all of those losses were against the upper tiers of a deep division, with Francisco Trinaldo—still somewhere around a Top 20 lightweight—clearly being the worst name on that list. Recently, Miller has blasted Alex White, Jason Gonzalez and Clay Guida, but this fight against Holtzman will go a long way towards showing that he can do more than pick up easy money. Holtzman is an interesting talent. Thanks to getting into the sport late after a hockey career, “Hot Sauce” is actually only a month younger than Miller. He is a physical specimen and surprisingly well-rounded, but that late start does tend to show against better competition, as Holtzman has not shown the technical depth to quite get over the hump. This might be that fight, as Holtzman is the stronger athlete and Miller has always been more of a generalist than someone who has one huge skill on which to fall back. Still, Miller deserves the benefit of the doubt. Holtzman himself does not have the one signature skill, and this would clearly be the worst opponent to which Miller has ever lost. The pick is Miller via decision in what should be an entertaining scrap.

Light Heavyweights

NR | Devin Clark (10-4, -300) vs. NR | Dequan Townsend (21-10, +250): He is still only 29 years old, so Clark has some upside, but he also has not evolved much during his three and a half years on the UFC roster. “The Brown Bear” is a powerhouse of an athlete and a solid wrestler, but he ranks among the divisional leaders in terms of ability to steal defeat from the jaws of victory. Clark just does not have much regard for what his opponent throws back at him, and that often backfires, particularly when he gets his opponent in danger. Clark completely sells out looking for the finish and usually winds up getting countered and finished himself. He takes on a late replacement in Townsend, who steps in just three weeks after a flat loss to Bevon Lewis. Townsend has a decent amount of power, so he has a chance at the upset, but he was not much of a wrestler at the regional level and should be out of his depth here. It is difficult to have any real faith in the outcome, but the pick is Clark via decision.

Bantamweights

NR | Merab Dvalishvili (9-4, -165) vs. #15 | Casey Kenney (13-1-1, +145): Kenney was one of the more pleasant surprises of 2019. Making his promotional debut just eight days after his previous fight, Kenney managed to neutralize and defeat Ray Borg, then turned around and did the same against highly touted prospect Manny Bermudez in his sophomore effort. It would be nice for Kenney if he could show something else besides his ability to reverse bad positions against aggressive grapplers, but he is in for more of the same here. Dvalishvili is an absolute maniac who is willing to throw wild strikes while often selling out to try and get takedown after takedown. Two UFC opponents have managed to beat him thus far, but it has not been easy. Frankie Saenz took a controversial split decision from him, while Ricky Simon needed to choke Dvalishvili unconscious at the final horn in order to get the nod. Kenney has made his hay in the UFC by winning wrestling exchanges, but it feels like that streak might end here. Dvalishvili may not be a much stronger wrestler than Borg and Bermudez, but he is a lot more dedicated to causing damage on the ground than hunting for submissions. That gives him a better chance of taking the scorecards in what will probably wind up as a grind. The pick is Dvalishvili via decision.

Women’s Bantamweights

#12 WBW | Macy Chiasson (5-1) vs. NR | Shanna Young (7-2): The Chiasson hype train got derailed a bit in her last fight, but she is still a prospect to watch. After starting her career and winning her season of “The Ultimate Fighter” as a featherweight, Chiasson cut down to bantamweight and mostly wrecked shop before running into Lina Lansberg in September. Chiasson’s poor grappling defense was evident even in her wins, but Lansberg managed to exploit it over three rounds and wear her out. Chiasson will look to rebound against a Dana White’s Contender Series and Invicta Fighting Championships alum in Young, who steps in as a late replacement on less than a week’s notice. Young is at her best when she can pick off her opponent from range as the more physically imposing fighter, which makes this a poor style matchup even before factoring in the late notice. Chiasson should be able to take her usual aggressive approach and enjoy plenty of success, given that Young does not appear to handle pressure particularly well. The pick is Chiasson via first-round submission.

Flyweights

#14 FLW | Raulian Paiva (18-3, -200) vs. Mark De La Rosa (11-3, +170): The UFC’s flyweight division looks like it is here to stay, and De La Rosa is one of the clear beneficiaries. He is a perfectly fine and well-rounded fighter, but most of his UFC career to date has been marked by an inability to hang physically against larger and stronger opponents. He will take on a Dana White’s Contender Series alum in Paiva, who has run into bad luck inside the Octagon thus far. He controversially lost on the scorecards against Kai Kara-France in February, then had a fun fight against Rogerio Bontorin stopped due to a cut just three minutes after it began. If it stays on the feet, Paiva’s reach and hand speed should be enough to take home the victory, but De La Rosa may be able to grind this out in the clinch and get the better of the grappling exchanges. However, Paiva has shown enough grappling chops in his previous fights that his winning by decision is the pick. The margin for error is thin for both men.