Bantamweights
Jimmie Rivera (22-2) vs. Aljamain Sterling (16-3): This might be the second-best fight on the card, which makes it a bit of a shame that it is stuck as the featured prelim. Rivera went undefeated for about a decade as he moved himself up the bantamweight ladder, which made it a bit disheartening when Marlon Moraes knocked him out in just 33 seconds in June. At the very least, he rebounded well and picked up where he left off, winning a clear decision over John Dodson three months later. He will take on a fellow recent Moraes victim in Sterling, who rebounded from that quick loss to have a banner 2018 and seemingly finally put everything together. Sterling has been a frustrating prospect. His grappling skills are excellent, but in recent years, he had fallen in love with an inefficient range striking game, leaving himself exhausted in later rounds and leading to some unnecessary losses. However, Sterling has been able to better manage his gas tank and has been smarter about chasing that wrestling game, winning his last two fights and regaining a ton of his shine. This is basically the big test to see if Sterling can make his range striking work for 15 minutes, since Rivera is defensively sound and extremely capable with counters. He can probably pass it. Even beyond being the much longer fighter, there is also the factor that Sterling might be the first guy in the UFC who can test Rivera’s defensive wrestling. It feels a bit odd to dismiss someone as great as Rivera, but the pick is a clear Sterling decision. ODDS: Rivera (-150), Sterling (+130)Bantamweights
Benito Lopez (9-0) vs. Manny Bermudez (13-0): It says a ton about the depth at bantamweight that prospects as talented as these two have fallen under the radar. Massachusetts native Bermudez has lived up to his “Bermudez Triangle” nickname, as he has gone 2-for-2 in winning his UFC fights with triangle chokes. While Bermudez has an extremely venomous submission game, he is also walking a tightrope otherwise. Bermudez is wild and extremely hittable on the feet, to the point that it is almost a foregone conclusion that one of his next few opponents will absolutely blast him. Team Alpha Male product Lopez is going to try to be that guy. Contrary to the typical Team Alpha Male mold, Lopez is a reedy striker who does not have much of a plan besides standing his ground and deciding to trade. He could absolutely finish Bermudez in short order, but his recent fights have seen him get controlled via wrestling before having to fight his way back. If that happens here, Bermudez probably will not give him the chance to fight back. The pick is Bermudez via first-round submission. ODDS: Bermudez (-230), Lopez (+190)Women’s Flyweights
Ashlee Evans-Smith (6-3) vs. Andrea Lee (9-2): The UFC women’s flyweight division is still a bit of a mess, so either of these fighters getting a second win at 125 pounds might be surprisingly important. Lee was a mixed bag in 2018, to say the least. She finally made her long-awaited UFC debut in May and earned a fun win over Veronica Macedo, but outside of the cage, she dealt with a bunch of issues involving her husband, first regarding some neo-Nazi tattoos and then a domestic violence incident. Hopefully, Lee can turn the page and show out well against Evans-Smith, who has obvious talent but consistently struggles to put it all together. The strongest part of Evans-Smith’s game is her wrestling, which should serve her even better after coming down from bantamweight, but she is a clear example of a fighter who is hurt by being well-rounded, as she often falls too in love with a middling striking game. Keeping this standing would make Evans-Smith a sitting duck against Lee, but even if she pursues her grappling, this could be a tough fight. Lee is physically strong, even if “KGB” consistently overestimates her power and winds up putting herself in bad positions. Evans-Smith probably will not fight a smart fight, so the pick is Lee via decision. ODDS: Lee (-185), Evans-Smith (+160)Lightweights
Scott Holtzman (12-2) vs. Nik Lentz (29-9-2): Holtzman’s potential has always been a question mark, but he may finally be turning the corner. Holtzman has always been a solid athlete with a well-rounded game and some decent charisma, but coming to MMA after a hockey career means that “Hot Sauce” is already in his mid-30s. He has been pretty successful as a jack-of-all-trades, master-of-none type, even if his approach has felt overly rote, but his October win over Alan Patrick Silva Alves showed some signs that Holtzman has finally had his breakthrough. Alves’ strong wrestling got him nowhere, as Holtzman stuffed takedowns, punished him on the feet and eventually scored some brutal ground-and-pound of his own on his way to a late finish. Given his age and the depth of the lightweight division, title contention might be a big ask, but Holtzman can officially make himself a concern with a win over Lentz. Despite starting his UFC career with a run of infamously boring fights, Lentz has managed to hang on for a decade as a grinder. He actually looked a bit spry in his last bout, but that was mostly an effect of facing a shopworn Gray Maynard. This will be another test of Holtzman’s wrestling, but as long as he can stop Lentz from smothering him, Holtzman should be able to pick apart “The Carny” and tire him out. Lentz cruising his way to a boring decision would not be shocking, but the pick is Holtzman on points. ODDS: Holtzman (-175), Lentz (+155)Last Fights » ESPN Plus Prelims
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