Prime Picks: UFC Mexico ‘Moreno vs. Erceg’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship is trying to make a tradition out of traveling to Mexico once per year, bringing with it marginally decent UFC Fight Night fare where a bunch of local fighters receive favorable matchups. A couple of massive favorites seem out of line, and when factoring in the extreme elevation, some of them might merit further examination. Join the UFC Mexico edition of Prime Picks as we kick around a few of those underdogs while finding a way to make some profit.

Manuel Torres-Drew Dober Lasts Under 1.5 Rounds (-185)

In an unusual turn of events, we will be skipping the lines on the headliner. Between Brandon Moreno and Steve Erceg, a moneyline on the favorite hovers around -240, while the underdog is not particularly jumping off the page to notch the upset. Additionally, suitable prop bets do not give enough value to suggest, as even betting on the main event going to decision is in the -220 range. Any further narrow options including one fighter winning in a certain way, like Moreno Wins by Decision, is barely in the plus territory, so we move on to greener pastures. The co-main event is a violent one—a clash of chins and fists and some other limbs that should result in someone getting put away fairly quickly.

If it were up to Torres, every one of his fights would wrap up in Round 1. The Mexican combatant has seen his last 11 outings conclude before five minute elapsed, with many in the range of one single minute. Dober is not quite as easy-in-easy-out as that, but he comes to brawl; and brawl is what he does best. His chiseled jaw has gotten him into trouble a couple times before, but his own punching power is so unheralded that he and Dustin Poirier are tied for the UFC lightweight division’s lead in all-time knockouts. These two gladiators will smash and bash one another while leaving defense at a premium, which inspires confidence that the entanglement will conclude prior to 2:30 of Round 2.

Vince Morales (+370)

When a large betting disparity presents itself, like Raul Rosas Jr. coming in around -500 with the comeback over +350, the question must be asked: “Should the favored fighter be that heavy of a favorite against anyone on the roster?” Sometimes, the number is justified; other times, it does not match up; and occasionally, it should be even more lopsided. The promotion did everything in its power to give Rosas Jr. a winnable fight in front of fans on his side, wheeling out the skidding Morales, who is a combined 3-7 while on his second stint in the promotion. His back is against the wall. In addition to feeding the 20-year-old a struggling, aging talent in a division where youth is king, the UFC gives Rosas Jr. a foe who will be keen on grappling.

When young Chase Hooper ran into trouble early on, it was largely due to his striking defense and not his specialty on the ground. Something similar is what opened up Rosas Jr.’s deficiencies when he fell short to Christian Rodriguez. Getting hit a few times softened him up, like a black belt regressing to a brown belt after getting punched in the face. Morales’ well-rounded nature, plus his ability to push the pace for three rounds if required, means that he can stand and bang with the youngster or he can hang with him on the mat. It has been nearly seven years since an opponent made “Vandetta” surrender to a submission, while he has displayed a greatly improved ground game. He even hunts and occasionally snags rare maneuvers like Peruvian neckties. Although Rosas Jr. could yet catch his foe in a sub, Morales should have the chops to keep “El Nino Problema” honest for the whole way through. If not keen on taking the upset, look towards the over, which is at -175 for the battle reaching beyond 2:30 of the third round.

Ronaldo Rodriguez (-142)

Of all the favorable pairings the promotion could have put together, the one pitting a Mexican against a foreign adversary sees a remarkably close line. A Coatzacoalcos, Veracruz, Mexico, native, Rodriguez struggled when on Dana White’s Contender Series, but he decided his journey would be made up of his own achievements, winning five straight on the regionals to get the call-up. Even if the two competitors measured fairly even on the feet, when it comes to the grappling, Rodriguez is head-and-shoulders above the man standing across from him. Rodriguez has more paths to victory and plenty of momentum behind him, making him a very suitable moneyline option.

Peru’s Kevin Borjas was dealt a rough hand, as he succeeded on DWCS and then was matched against a future star in Joshua Van. The bounce-back offering against Alessandro Costa was even worse, as “Nono” punched him out in under a round and a half. What makes this such tough sledding for Borjas is that while his punching power can stack up well in the flyweight category, he is quite hittable and is susceptible to being grounded repeatedly. Should “Lazy Boy” not like what he is receiving on the feet, he can easily throw the wrestling lever and take Borjas’ heavy hands and knees totally out of the equation. Whether by earning a stoppage from accumulation of damage, wrangling a submission or simply neutralizing Borjas, Rodriguez can get the job done and should likely be an even heavier favorite.

Jose Medina (+310)

If recently unsuccessful newcomer Josias Musasa is any indication, the UFC should pump the brakes signing untested African flamethrowers until they have shown they can swim against an opponent with a pulse. Musasa came into UFC Fight Night 254 with a full head of steam and a swath of knockouts on his resume, but his reckless style proved to be his greatest weakness when Carlos Vera punted him upside the head and choked him out. It is far too broad of a brush to say fighters from Central Africa will summarily fail across the board in the Octagon, but Ateba Abega Gautier has not done himself any favors working his way to the promotion. With this fight taking place at high elevation in Mexico City, Gautier could easily swing for the bleachers—most of his victories are also by speedy knockout—and tire himself out in a hurry.

A win over Jan Lysak, a competitor who currently sports a pro record of 0-29, is not something to hang one’s hat on. When it took almost five minutes to blow Lysak away, it looks even worse, given that the Czech fighter has a penchant for getting smoked in a minute and is flagged by Tapology for intentionally losing fights. Based on the information at our disposal, no one took that long to beat Lysak in his entire first-round-defeat-filled career. Most of Gautier’s other competition is hardly stellar, but he did manage to get past a then-undefeated Yura Naito to qualify for a contract. Medina has much more experience across the board, plus the ability to go five rounds if needed. This has the makings of a two-outcome match, where either Gautier gets the quick knockout (+230) or “Chicho” outlasts him to pull off the upset. We’re going with the latter.