Prime Picks: UFC on ESPN 16 ‘Holm vs. Aldana’

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The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday puts on its usual post-pay-per-view-lull fight card, this time in the form of UFC on ESPN 16 at the Flash Forum in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. While odds are fairly stark for this show, with lines either incredibly close or extremely lopsided, there are still ways to navigate the minefield. Three interesting stylistic matchups and one bout that will almost certainly end violently pique our curiosity in this edition of Prime Picks.

Irene Aldana (+100)

The only five women to defeat Holly Holm are current or former UFC champions, with more than one of them either stepping over Holm to win the title or get a crack at the belt. While Aldana has a treacherous path to the throne by having to go through the Jackson-Wink MMA mainstay before presumably coming to blows with Amanda Nunes, she could buck Holm’s trend. This bout will likely go the full 25 minutes—that line sits at -190, with potential as part of a parlay—and Aldana will have to maintain a high guard for much of the fight. We expect that Aldana, whose boxing skills have developed significantly through her UFC tenure, can use her forward-heavy style to keep Holm backing up and take home a win.

Holm has never maintained a volume-centric striking style, and combined with a low striking accuracy rate of 35 percent, “less is more” has been her path to victory many times over the years. Her head kick remains effective, and her overall kicking game provides a path for how she could take Aldana out of the fight. If she works the leg kick to disrupt Aldana’s movement, she can gain the upper hand. All but one of Holm’s career stoppage wins have come from her kicks, and her lone stoppage from punches came after body kicks hurt Katie Merrill at Bellator 91 in 2013. To throw kicks, she will need to have enough distance to get them off, and Aldana may not stay at that range for long.

Getting into a kickboxing match would be a fool’s errand for the Mexican fighter, even though Aldana’s first three career victories came from knees and a spinning wheel kick. Although Aldana’s striking accuracy rate is only slightly better than Holm’s, her volume makes up for it in spades. While Holm has never landed more than 80 significant strikes against any of her UFC opponents, Aldana has done so on five separate occasions. She will need to stay in Holm’s face throughout the fight, and she will also have to hope her cardio and pace can hold up in the championship rounds.

A former bantamweight queen and two-time featherweight title challenger, Holm has improved her ability to fight at close range more than any other skill set. Her ability to grind out fights and nullify who she is facing came to the forefront in her rematch with Raquel Pennington, as she bullied “Rocky” against the fence and held her there for good portions of their confrontation. There is a chance that Holm utilizes this risk-averse strategy to simply outmuscle Aldana and keep her trapped to the fence to eke out a win, but that is as far as she will get it. Aldana’s long legs and effective takedown defense should help her stave off the potential body lock takedown or trip attempt to come from the ex-champ.

In a match that could end up quite close, Aldana can take advantage of the kickboxer by not allowing Holm to get off many kicks. Keeping the fight in a close boxing range while fighting off attempts to clinch can go a long way for the younger fighter from Mexico. Holm will be 39 years of age in less than three weeks, and there are very few elite female fighters at the upper end of their 30s. The age cliff oft discussed for fighters may be approaching Holm faster than she realizes, and even though this will only be the 19th MMA match for “The Preacher’s Daughter,” she also sports about 60 combined bouts in boxing and kickboxing throughout her career.

This fight mileage may be catching up to Holm, especially when compared to the far younger and less experienced Aldana. In comparison, the 32-year-old Lobo Gym rep will be entering her 18th MMA fight—with no prior boxing or kickboxing damage for the prospective graphic designer. By fighting smart, playing to her strengths and not falling into prolonged clinch exchanges or going kick-for-kick with the kickboxer, Aldana can get her hand raised in a minor upset.

Germaine de Randamie (-150)

In a match that should have served as the co-main event but may have been slotted lower as a slight to de Randamie, the former featherweight champion has the size and strength to get past Julianna Pena. While the aforementioned Nunes managed take down “The Iron Lady” practically at will and even though Pena’s strongest suit is her grappling, de Randamie’s takedown defense is historically solid. The Dutchwoman’s consecutive wins over Anna Elmose, Holm and Pennington saw her stuff all 22 attempts that came her way in those bouts. De Randamie can win this fight by keeping her distance and lighting up Pena on the feet.

Pena has hit at least one takedown on all six of her past UFC opponents, and she may be able to land one or two throughout the course of this fight. The threat of the takedown could make de Randamie gun-shy, as she holds back on committing to strikes out of concern that overextending herself leads to getting planted on her back. This could lead to Pena controlling the match in a tepid manner, keeping de Randamie from getting off her best strikes and grinding out the former champ. Although “The Iron Lady” has been shut down before with grappling, this is not likely a matchup that will precipitate that strategy succeeding.

Even though Nunes landed takedowns in every round and largely controlled the contest for its duration, de Randamie outlanded her two-time opponent on the feet and in the clinch. Pena’s grappling is slick and far more seasoned than that of her adversary, but if she tries to explode into positions to get de Randamie down, she may find herself on the losing end of a power-versus-power battle. “The Venezuelan Vixen” could execute a takedown or two as the fight progresses, but one or two will not be enough to stifle de Randamie for 15 minutes. De Randamie can use the fence as her ally to get back to her feet in the event of being taken down, but she would be wise to steer clear of it at all other times and keep the fight standing at all costs. Should the former Strikeforce fighter keep this as a kickboxing contest, she can win going away.

Dequan Townsend-Dusko Todorovic Doesn’t Go to Decision (-145)

Todorovic is a prohibitive -340 favorite, even as a UFC newcomer, so he is largely expected to hand Townsend his fourth consecutive defeat. In doing so, he will likely hand “The Tarantula” his walking papers, as well, but there is always the chance of a surprise upset. Townsend, who sports an 81 percent finish rate, may be short of his opponent’s 89 percent stoppage rate, but the lion’s share of his wins inside the distance have come in the first round. This will be the first full camp for Townsend as a member of the UFC roster, as he decided to take several short-notice opportunities to compete. As a result of both men’s propensity to keep their bouts out of the hands of the judges and the unusual position of this set as a main-card offering, we expect it will end before the final bell.

Todorovic went the distance for the first time in his career in his last bout, where he won a contract by outpowering Teddy Ash on Dana White’s Contender Series. The Serbian newcomer had previously never even reached the third round, capturing his most impressive scalp when he stalked down Michel Pereira in 2018 and smashed him to earn a spot on DWCS. The clinch game is one of Townsend’s weaker elements—as shown by his three successive defeats—when an opponent presents a strength advantage and saps his cardio by controlling the action. Todorovic can do just that, grinding out the first round and taking out a fatiguing Townsend before the judges get involved.

Townsend was on the wrong end of the strength advantage at 205 pounds, and one stop against Bevon Lewis at middleweight did not alleviate these issues. Although he has yet to get his hand raised as a UFC fighter, he has shown moments of promise with quick head kicks and powerful knees. Unfortunately for the Michigan native, either getting put on his back or pressed against the cage wall led to his undoing for three consecutive starts. While his power strikes are effective in the opening frame, once he starts to fatigue, there is little left to speak of. Taking this bout not going the distance allows for Townsend to spring the upset with one of his big head kicks while also accommodating for the possibility of Todorovic getting the stoppage. Should you believe Townsend will be outmatched from start to finish, look no further than Todorovic Wins Inside Distance at +135.

Court McGee (-135)

While McGee and Carlos Condit have lost their last seven combined matchups, this streak-breaker pairing has all the makings of a sixth straight loss for the latter—a World Extreme Cagefighting legend and former interim welterweight titleholder in the UFC. Although the two men are separated by about eight months of age, both longtime vets have a lot of hard miles on them. Condit has been involved in a number of terrific and wild scraps over the years, and McGee has seen his fair share of trials on his own. McGee has always excelled at being a grinder, and Condit has oftentimes been grinded out in recent battles.

McGee has landed at least two takedowns in eight of his UFC appearances, and when he cannot get the fight down, he welcomes prolonged clinch exchanges. None of this close-proximity fighting will favor Condit, who once had the ability to threaten with submissions or fight his way out of bad positions. McGee’s defeats lately came when his style was thwarted by a younger, quicker opponent like Sean Brady or Dhiego Lima, as both were able to stop his grind-embracing attack. Condit once had the ability to do this, but the part of his career where he could peel out of a clinch to snap up a head kick or an elbow may be truly behind him. McGee will almost certainly look to come out as the great nullifier for 15 long, arduous minutes.

When arguing that fighters can only pull off the win if they “turn back the clock” or “pull the trigger like they used to,” it rarely bodes well for them. Look no further than John Dodson, a Condit teammate who used to fight in exciting bursts but wound up losing repeated disappointing “what could have been”-type decisions. All-action fighters can rarely keep it up for their entire career, and even though McGee may not be on the level of a Neil Magny or Michael Chiesa, he should have enough weapons to stifle the “Natural Born Killer.” Condit may have once been appointment viewing, but his offense-first style has not aged well as the game evolved. McGee’s own ability may not have transformed much over the years, either, but this is the kind of stylistic matchup that should favor him to win a grueling decision that disappoints WEC fans everywhere.