Stand and Deliver: UFC Vegas 103

Every fight matters, but some matter just a little more.

A win is a win, and a loss is a loss, but some feel bigger than others for various reasons. In some cases, the elevated stakes are easy to define—the fighter on a losing streak who knows he or she is likely fighting for their job, or conversely, any title fight in a top regional organization, where the combatants know the big leagues are scouting them. At other times, a fight feels especially important for reasons that are harder to quantify but no less real. Whether it’s the unspoken weight of being a pioneer in MMA from one’s native country or the simple added spice of two fighters who genuinely hate each other’s guts, that fight just means more.

On Saturday, UFC Fight Night 253—or UFC Vegas 103 if you prefer— rolls into the Apex as a last appetizer course before the feast that is next week’s UFC 313. As is usually the case with Fight Night cards, the 24 men and women scheduled to make the walk in Sin City this weekend represent just about every phase of a professional fighter’s career arc, from top contenders looking to make a case for a title shot, to fan-favorite action merchants angling for bonus checks, to newcomer prospects hoping to make a big impression. Here are a couple of fighters who are under a little extra pressure to stand and deliver at UFC Vegas 103:

Grab That Brass Ring, Asu Almabaev

Stepping up on short notice—sort of; while he got the call when Brandon Royval fell off the card, it was over two months ago—Almabaev has a chance to usurp Kape’s place in the flyweight contenders’ queue. This column usually steers clear of highlighting headliners for the simple reason that the stakes in a main event tend to be obvious. However, there is a sneaky “now or never” vibe to Almabaev’s tilt with Manel Kape on Saturday. There are a couple of reasons. One, despite feeling like an up-and-coming fighter during his 4-0 run since joining the UFC 18 months ago, the 31-year-old Kazakhstani is actually older than Kape, and probably in his physical prime right now.

Second, and more importantly, “Zulfikhar” is a natural grinder in a men’s flyweight division otherwise stocked with frenetic action heroes. Even Kape, Almabaev’s foe on Saturday, balances his sometimes trigger-shy ways with the looming threat of a highlight-reel finish; meanwhile, Almabaev comes across more like a deluxe, souped-up version of his countryman and divisional predecessor Zhalgas Zhumagulov. Just ask Merab Dvalishvili or Belal Muhammad how long the wait can be for a rising UFC contender who keeps winning but fails to dazzle. On Saturday, Royval’s lost opportunity is an opportunity gained for Almabaev, but if he doesn’t take advantage, it may be quite a while before he gets another chance to show his stuff in a marquee matchup.

Andrea Lee: Once More into the Breach, I Guess

As she heads into her undercard clash with J.J. Aldrich on Saturday, I have given up on predicting that “KGB” is fighting for her roster spot. Mired in a run of five straight defeats that stretches back three years, the 36-year-old Louisianan epitomizes futility like no other woman on the roster, yet continues to cling to the bottom rung of her division’s ladder like Sam Alvey with a worse losing streak and a better smile. It isn’t just that she has been losing—and in her defense, none of the losses have been against bad fighters—but that she has looked so inert in defeat. The fights, all of which have gone the distance, have been dreary affairs, and Lee has not been especially competitive in most of them.

At this point, Lee is about as relevant as the actual KGB, which ceased to be a going concern in 1991 when she was just two years old. The three-year skid is damning enough, but you would have to go back nearly six years to find Lee’s last win over a woman who is still on the UFC roster, and that woman, Montana De La Rosa, won their rematch last summer, further highlighting Lee’s competitive decline. Lee’s opponent on Saturday, Aldrich, is practically her opposite in terms of career arc. Where Lee entered the UFC with a solid regional résumé including an LFA championship belt, and a face the promotion would dearly love to have put on some posters if she had been able to justify it with her in-cage performances, Aldrich was signed to little fanfare and has gradually slugged her way into relevance while continuing to improve her skills.

The two women appear to be passing on escalators headed in opposite directions, and while it would be an eye-opener if Lee could snap her losing streak at the expense of the quietly rising Aldrich, that may not be realistic—and for all we know her job may be secure either way. What would be great is if Lee did something, anything to make the average fan care whether she is still in the UFC at this time next week.