This is a solid opportunity for Luque to regain some momentum,
thanks to his chances for a win and the near-guaranteed potential
for some violence. Luque was somewhat of an afterthought coming off
his 2015 season of “The Ultimate Fighter,” owing mostly to a
mediocre regional record. However, it turned out that “The Silent
Assassin” was getting his lumps out of the way, as he quickly
marched through the division in impressive fashion; not only was
Luque racking up win over win, but he was constantly stringing
together finishes and making a name for himself as one of the
sport’s most reliably action fighters. There has been the
occasional loss—a 2017 defeat to Leon
Edwards aged quite well, and 2019 saw Luque run into one of
Stephen
Thompson’s last great performances—but he continues to rebound
with impressive finishes and “Fight of the Year” contenders thanks
to his all-offense approach. Luque is content to just march
straight ahead and win a war of attrition, requiring opponents to
outmaneuver him or suddenly go toe-to-toe with a woodchipper.
Victories over Niko Price
and Mike
Perry in recent years have established Luque as basically
indestructible, and a first-round submission of Michael
Chiesa was another reminder of his considerable grappling
skill, which made it all the more impressive when Belal
Muhammad was able to beat him in a headlining rematch in April.
Luque had actually scored a knockout of the former Titan Fighting
Championship titleholder in 2016, but their second encounter saw
Muhammad masterfully mix an evasive striking game with some
control-heavy wrestling, threading a needle of constant danger to
put together a 25-minute win. It is a loss that closes Luque’s
championship window for now, but it will be interesting to see if
he can find his way back in the mix. Luque is still somehow only 30
years old, but there is some new blood rising at welterweight and
years of difficult wars should theoretically catch up to him at
some point, even if he has looked no worse for wear thus far. The
bounce-back campaign starts with this fight against Neal.
Neal’s path through the welterweight ranks has been surprisingly
similar, even if “Handz of Steel” has not kept up Luque’s torrid
pace. After an impressive start to his UFC career in 2018, it was a
2019 win over Muhammad that set Neal up for a breakout year. While
that was more of a tactical battle over three rounds, Neal wrapped
up the year with knockout wins over Price and Perry that
established his credentials more as a bringer of all-out violence.
However, for as fruitful as 2019 was, 2020 was essentially a lost
year for Neal, first due to his inability to find a ranked opponent
and then due to a life-threatening infection suffered over the
summer. Amazingly, Neal made it back to the cage by the end of the
year but found himself—much like Luque—looking one-dimensional in a
clear loss against Thompson. Things did not get much better in
Neal’s subsequent loss to Neil Magny, a
clinch-heavy affair that was also marked by his low output.
However, Neal did finally look a bit better against Santiago
Ponzinibbio, even if the worry is that those medical issues
have taken away what seemed like his truly elite upside. Neal might
have more options as far as strategizing around Luque goes, but at
its core, this seems to be a fight where these two are just going
to crash into each other violently and things will sort themselves
out. At the moment, Luque looks like the much more effective and
dangerous fighter if this winds up where he is most comfortable.
This should be fun. The pick is Luque via decision.
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