Preview: UFC on ESPN 51 ‘Luque vs. Dos Anjos’

Featherweights

Hakeem Dawodu (13-3-1, 6-3 UFC) vs. Cub Swanson (28-13, 13-9 UFC)

ODDS: Dawodu (-230), Swanson (+190)

Swanson just keeps trucking along. After quick and brutal losses to Jens Pulver and Jose Aldo threatened to derail his career during his prospect days back in World Extreme Cagefighting, Swanson picked up the pieces and became a perennial featherweight contender once the UFC absorbed his home promotion. Swanson never quite made it over the hump to a title shot, but he gave it multiple goes during his peak, charging up the ladder a few times, only to suffer the wrong loss at the wrong time to get locked out of the championship picture. The last of those losses, a 2017 defeat to Brian Ortega, seemed to trigger a late-career spiral that resulted in four losses and raised some doubts about Swanson’s future, but the Californian has come out the other end just fine. The cracks are showing a bit as Swanson nears 40 years old—his last two losses to Giga Chikadze and Jonathan Martinez were the first knockouts he has suffered in over a decade—but his offensive craft is as sharp as ever. Alternating with those losses are knockouts of Daniel Pineda and Darren Elkins that rank among the most electric finishes of Swanson’s career. His direction does seem somewhat aimless at this point—the Martinez fight was a one-off trip down to bantamweight that figured to mix things up but did not pay many dividends—but he is surprisingly viable for such a well-traveled warhorse, enough so to make this fight against Dawodu quite interesting.

It is difficult to know what to make of Dawodu, particularly after his frustrating defeat to Julian Erosa in September, as the Canadian’s career has been equal parts flashes of brilliance and stretches of frustration. Dawodu came into the UFC in 2018 as a highly touted striker whose career had been slowed down due to contractual issues, and his long-awaited debut was a shocking disappointment, as he got starched by Danny Henry in just 39 seconds. That highlighted a clear flaw in Dawodu's approach—he will often rely on his ability to counter his opponents and cede them the initiative—that has not backfired anywhere near as spectacularly since; still, it does remain a constant worry in his fights. Even as Dawodu rebounded for a five-fight winning streak, there was the sense that he could be making more of his talent. He hit hard and kept pace with his opponents every step of the way but had a habit of eking out split decisions against overmatched opposition just by his willingness to let his opponents lead and stay in the fight. A 2021 defeat to Movsar Evloev was unsurprising—if anything, Dawodu’s ability to hang with the Russian’s wrestling-heavy approach made it an overachieving performance—but that Erosa loss is the clearest sign yet that he would be served well by a change in mentality. Erosa constantly took the initiative and kept Dawodu uncomfortable through aggression and volume. Thanks to those flaws, it is hard to count Swanson out of this fight, even if the younger talent still gets the nod. Swanson does not have much of a wrestling switch-up, so in a pure striking match the lean is that Dawodu can separate himself as the harder shot-for-shot fighter in what should be a fairly straightforward war. The pick is Dawodu via decision.

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Luque vs. Dos Anjos
Dawodu vs. Swanson
Rountree vs. Daukaus
Lucindo vs. Viana
Nchukwi vs. Dobson
Fremd vs. Pickett
The Prelims