Preview: UFC 274 ‘Oliveira vs. Gaethje’

Lightweights

#5 LW | Michael Chandler (22-7, 1-2 UFC) vs. #7 LW | Tony Ferguson (25-6, 15-4 UFC)

ODDS: Chandler (-380), Ferguson (+290)

Ferguson’s career figured to run out of momentum at some point, but it has still been a shock to watch things come to such a screeching halt. Ferguson won Season 13 of “The Ultimate Fighter” to mark himself as a prospect to watch back in 2011, and after losing a bout to Michael Johnson in part due to a broken arm, it was off to the races for “El Cucuy,” who eventually strung together 12 straight wins. Ferguson’s frenetic approach—sometimes at his own expense—made him must-see action, as he would bank on his durability, creativity and seemingly endless cardio to come back from destruction and take over a fight, often through his impressive submission game. However, even as Ferguson racked up the wins to clearly become one of the best fighters in the world, it came in the shadow of a potential pairing against Khabib Nurmagomedov, one of the most cursed matchups in mixed martial arts history. Booked multiple times, the fight constantly fell through due to various issues, some career- or life-threatening, on one side of the other, culminating in the fight being one of the first casualties of the coronavirus pandemic. Instead, Ferguson wound up fighting Justin Gaethje in what wound up being the beginning of the end for his days as an elite fighter. For the first time, Ferguson was unable to stage a comeback and instead got battered down the stretch by Gaethje until a merciful stoppage late in the fifth round. The hope was that Ferguson would eventually find his floor, but that has not come yet. Charles Oliveira and Beneil Dariush dominated Ferguson in fights that were not overwhelmingly violent but were still somewhat depressing as “El Cucuy” got outwrestled and controlled without much issue. Making matters worse, instead of something that shapes up as a hopeful bounce-back win, the UFC has decided to match Ferguson with Chandler.

The UFC’s highest-profile signing in recent memory, Chandler has certainly made his trips to the Octagon count thus far. A wrecking ball of muscle with a wrestling background, the worry was that we had already seen the best of Chandler after a decade as one of the top fighters in Bellator. However, if Chandler is past his peak, it is not by much, and he has more than made up for that by affirming himself as one of the most violent men in the sport. Chandler blasted Dan Hooker in just two and a half minutes for an impressive UFC debut in January 2021, which set up a title fight against Oliveira for the vacant lightweight strap. That bout was five minutes and change of absolute madness, with each man on the verge of getting finished in multiple phases of the fight until Oliveira scored a knockout at the start of the second round. That somehow paled in comparison to Chandler’s last fight, an all-time classic war against Gaethje that saw both men try to destroy each other for 15 minutes. It ended with a Gaethje win in a fight that somehow managed to make it to a decision. Chandler is such a tightly coiled fighter that there is always the worry he can wear himself out, but making it three rounds against Gaethje is a good sign towards lessening those worries, particularly in a fight like this. Even if Chandler tires himself out pouring offense onto Ferguson, it is unclear what the Californian has left in the tank to turn such a fight around at this point.

FEELY'S PREDICTION:The pick is Chandler via first-round knockout.

Oliveira vs. Gaethje
Namajunas vs. Esparza
Chandler vs. Ferguson
St. Preux vs. Rua
Cerrone vs. Lauzon
UFC 274 Prelims