Preview: UFC 317 ‘Topuria vs. Oliveira’

Flyweights

Joshua Van (14-2, 7-1 UFC) vs. Brandon Royval (17-7, 7-3 UFC)

BETTING ODDS: Van (-120), Royval (+100)

Success in mixed martial arts requires just the right type of insanity, and Van just might have it, simply by the fact that he’s taking this fight on a three-week turnaround. That’s even without factoring in that Van is already one of the top prospects in the sport regardless of weight class, showing himself to be an absolute prodigy at just 23 years of age. Van made his professional debut in 2021 and was essentially ready for the UFC a year and a half later. His aggressive and offensively focused approach figured to run him into trouble at some point, but he was already a surprisingly sharp boxer and somehow seemingly managed to build out an effective wrestling and grappling game from scratch in a matter of months. Van’s regional career was also marked by him packing in fights wherever possible, and that trend certainly held once he hit the UFC. Van just passed the two-year mark of his UFC debut, and this marks the 12th card that he has been scheduled to fight on.

Van’s approach has historically focused on him absorbing damage early while he warms up in order to get his reads on his opponents later, so there was the worry that his schedule was catching up to him after his first UFC loss—a third-round knockout to fellow late adjuster Charles Johnson in July. That held for a bit, as Van kept eating damage even as he kept winning, but he might already have worked past those concerns. His last win over Bruno “Bulldog” Silva was his most complete performance yet, as Van didn’t even need to warm up and dominated things from the jump before scoring a late finish. That showing figured to get Van a massive jump up in competition, and he's getting just about the biggest jump up possible outside of a title fight. Royval, a top contender, suddenly needed an opponent for this card, and within days of his win over Silva, Van stepped in to take his second fight of the month.



Royval’s status as an elite flyweight is undeniable, even if it has been an odd path to get there. “Raw Dawg” was signed early on in the coronavirus pandemic and immediately charged up the division as one of its most exciting fighters, setting a whirlwind pace of violence that few could keep up with—including Royval himself, as his first UFC loss came when he separated his shoulder in a grappling exchange. After running himself into losses against Brandon Moreno and Alexandre Pantoja, Royval decided to pivot to an approach that seemed like an odd fit, committing himself to a range striking attack centered around throwing out a lot of low-powered volume. Royval was initially ineffective enough that he nearly lost a decision to Rogerio Bontorin, but he still eventually proved himself capable of bringing some violence. Matt Schnell played aggressor and charged into a submission, and Matheus Nicolau’s patient and counter-heavy style wound up with his being unprepared for Royval’s ranginess and getting knocked out. Those wins set Royval up for a rematch against Pantoja, this time for the flyweight title. The result was the worst of both worlds for Royval, who accomplished little while getting outwrestled in an unexciting affair.

There wasn’t much interest in a trilogy fight coming off that performance, but Royval might wind up forcing the issue anyway, winning a rematch against Moreno and knocking off top prospect Tatsuro Taira in 2024. Royval’s style change still feels a bit uncomfortable, but his size and gas tank have certainly been enough to throw most other flyweights off their game. It will be interesting to see how much Van can stress-test things in this assignment given his hot start in his last fight, and it will be just as fascinating to see what Royval comes up with in return. Royval’s inner maniac still exists even as he tries to repress it, so there’s a decent chance he can come up with something creative enough to hand Van his second knockout loss. In general, if such a thing as too much too soon exists with Van, this feels like it might be it. Even in his less violent form, Royval is a unique challenge that the prospect still needs to feel out, and Van’s usual pace and cardio advantage figures to be matched by the former title contender. That’s before factoring in that this is Van’s second fight in 21 days. Add in Royval’s grappling advantages, and he seems like the clear pick, with the caveat that Van is capable of putting in a career-best performance in every fight. The pick is Royval via decision.

Continue Reading »
Topuria vs. Oliveira
Pantoja vs. Kara-France
Van vs. Royval
Moicano vs. Dariush
Lima vs. Talbott
The Prelims