Preview: UFC 308 ‘Topuria vs. Holloway’

Light Heavyweights

#1 LHW | Magomed Ankalaev (18-1-1, 10-1-1 UFC) vs. #5 LHW | Aleksandar Rakic (14-4, 6-3 UFC)

ODDS: Ankalaev (-345), Rakic (+275)

UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway Saturday at 2 PM ET on ESPN+. Order Now!

There’s a decent chance that Ankalaev has been the best light heavyweight in the world for the last few years, which makes his long path to potentially becoming champion all the more improbable. Ankalaev came to the UFC in 2018 and looked every bit the type of blue-chip prospect that would run roughshod over the division—a billing that he lived up to for most of his UFC debut against Paul Craig. Ankalaev’s best skills have always been his wrestling and ground-and-pound. He spent the better part of his fight with Craig beating the Scotsman into a pulp, until the “Bearjew” clamped on a triangle choke and earned a submission with one second remaining—a result that remains among the biggest upsets in UFC history. Ankalaev recovered well enough and has remained undefeated since, but as the Russian has broken into more high-profile fights, it does seem like the Craig loss has had an effect on him in all the wrong ways. For all his talent, Ankalaev hasn’t had an inspiring performance in a good while, as he seems reluctant to get to his best weapons. He will just coast out rounds on the feet in a slow-paced affair, rarely turning up the heat and pivoting to his wrestling. Given the state of the light heavyweight division, that still didn’t cost Ankalaev much in terms of results—only entertainment value—for most of his rise through the ranks, but then came his 2022 fight against Jan Blachowicz for the then-vacant title. Ankalaev solidly looked like the better fighter, yet was only able to walk away with a draw. He spent most of the first few rounds of the fight getting picked apart in uninspiring fashion, only to finally wrestle in the championship rounds and dominate the fight down the stretch. The UFC threw up its hands and seemingly disqualified both men from the title picture for the moment, so Ankalaev was left to fight a two-fight series with Johnny Walker. After the first fight ended in a no contest, Ankalaev held serve with his typical workmanlike performance in the rematch. The thought was that Ankalaev was now firmly entrenched as Alex Pereira’s top contender, but the UFC has continually passed him over in favor of matching the Brazilian with more exciting fighters. Will a win over Rakic finally be enough?

Unlike Ankalaev, Rakic didn’t come to the UFC with any particular level of hype. As a prospect, the Austrian was firmly in the genre of the UFC signing whoever happened to keep winning on the regional scene and seeing what shakes out from there. However, Rakic proved to be a quick study, even if the level of excitement he brings to the proceedings has varied. He has scored some electric knockouts of Devin Clark and Jimi Manuwa when pressed into action but has otherwise gotten by as a neutralizer, using his combination of size and speed to either outmaneuver or outwrestle his opponents. Given the controversial nature of his split decision loss to Volkan Oezdemir in 2019, there was a decent case for Rakic to be undefeated inside the Octagon heading into his 2022 bout against Blachowicz, and in another universe, he might have already crashed the light heavyweight title party with another big victory. In this one, he was settling into what seemed to be a winning performance against Blachowicz until a sudden knee injury ended the fight, handing him a loss and keeping him out of action for two years. Rakic looked sharp upon his return at UFC 300 in April, but he had the bad fortune of running into Jiri Prochazka for what turned into the first definitive loss of his UFC career. Rakic was coasting to a win until Prochazka entered berserker status, landing big shots and pouring on the punishment until a second-round stoppage. That did show that Rakic is definitely the less comfortable of these two fighters when put under extreme pressure, which makes it all the more frustrating that Ankalaev is unlikely to pursue that path to victory. Instead, this is likely to be three rounds of Ankalaev consenting to a patient striking match from range, which makes it a toss-up. Rakic might just be the better bet in terms of staying quick and stringing together volume. The pick is Rakic via decision.

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Topuria vs. Holloway
Chimaev vs. Whittaker
Murphy vs. Ige
Ankalaev vs. Rakic
Magomedov vs. Petrosyan
The Prelims