Preview: UFC Vegas 106 ‘Burns vs. Morales’

Middleweights

Nursulton Ruziboev (35-9-2, 3-1 UFC) vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (16-6, 3-5 UFC)

ODDS: Ruziboev (-298), Stoltzfus (+240)

After a rough start to his UFC career, Stoltzfus has done surprisingly well to keep his head above water over the last few years. An American training out of Germany, Stoltzfus’ biggest win is still probably his 2020 Contender Series victory over Joe Pyfer. It saw Stoltzfus earn a quick win—and a contract—after Pyfer injured his arm attempting to land while being slammed. However, that result felt a bit lucky after Stoltzfus’ first few UFC bouts. He showed some solid enough game plans built around his wrestling but constantly got undone by his lack of speed or firepower. Whether it was increased comfort or some more forgiving matchmaking, Stoltzfus has found his level and alternated wins and losses over his last five fights, still getting sparked out at times but gutting out some tough wins and finishes of his own, including a quick knockout of Marc-Andre Barriault in November. Up next: a fascinating test against Uzbekistan’s Ruziboev, who comes with just about the opposite approach.

Compared to Stoltzfus’ unspectacular attempts at consistency, Ruziboev is all about the sudden finish. His long frame has allowed him develop a game mostly centered on various tricks, either catching opponents with looping strikes or some surprising submissions. Ruziboev’s regional resume favored quantity over quality to the point that it was easy to dismiss most of his wins, but upon his 2023 UFC debut it became apparent that he’s comfortable and venomous enough to make his approach work at a high level, even if better fighters like Joaquin Buckley are able to consistently keep him on his heels. Ruziboev’s dependence on gambles leaves a lot of holes that Stoltzfus can exploit to make this a grind, but it seems like a safe assumption that the Uzbek can pull out something with fight-ending effectiveness over the course of 15 minutes. The pick is Ruziboev via second-round knockout.

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Burns vs. Morales
Bellato vs. Craig
Santos vs. Yusuff
Ruziboev vs. Stoltzfus
Costa vs. Erosa
The Prelims