Preview: UFC on ESPN 11 ‘Blaydes vs. Volkov’ Main Card

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Welterweights

Belal Muhammad (16-3) vs. Lyman Good (21-5)

ODDS: Muhammad (-150), Good (+130)

It is promising to see Muhammad get some shine here, as this is a rare main card slot for one of the UFC’s most underappreciated welterweights. There was some concern about how Muhammad’s style would translate upon signing with the UFC. He is not a plus athlete and tends to build over rounds, something that figured to hurt him going from regional championship fights to 15 minutes inside the Octagon. However, he has held up well, winning seven out of his 10 UFC bouts and not having much of an issue in those wins. At his best, Muhammad can build up an ever-increasing pace and volume that leaves no doubt about the victor once the fight is over. Still, Muhammad has had issues getting over the hump to true contender status, particularly against the better athletes he has faced. Luque sparked Muhammad early in their respective UFC runs, and his most recent loss came against Geoff Neal in a back-and-forth war. Muhammad has rebounded nicely in the last year-plus, but a victory here against Good would assuage a lot of those concerns.

A New York native, Good will always have a spot in the record books as Bellator’s first welterweight champion. Ben Askren quickly put an end to his reign, but Good continued to enjoy success, enough so that it was a surprise he could not find a home after parting ways with the promotion in 2013. An attempt to get into “The Ultimate Fighter” house was unsuccessful, but “Cyborg” did eventually link arms with the UFC in 2015 after racking up a few regional wins. Good has not been particularly active between injuries and United States Anti-Doping Agency issues—he has fought only five times in the last five years—but he has been sneakily successful. His two UFC losses have come against Demian Maia and Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos, the latter of which resulted from a razor-thin decision. Good is a well-rounded if not particularly deep fighter, but he backs it up with power and physicality, which has led to his smashing opponents like Chance Rencountre in November. A win here against Muhammad, who is consistently bubbling under the radar as a potential contender, might be the best victory of his career.

Again, this is a really fun litmus test for Muhammad and his ability to handle plus athletes who can threaten him with a knockout. That is particularly true since physicality is the one advantage Good brings to the table here. While Good can do a little bit of everything, his opponent offers much more in terms of technical depth and can build a better game plan. As such, the dynamic comes down to whether Good can hit enough big shots on the feet to stem the Roufusport rep’s attempts to get his boxing game rolling and whether or not Good is a solid enough defensive wrestler to turn back Muhammad’s takedowns—an underrated part of the latter’s game. The wrestling is probably the scarier part for Good since Muhammad has yet to beat a harder hitter in a pure striking match. Against Curtis Millender, which was Muhammad’s lone victory over a knockout artist, he managed to take advantage of his opponent’s porous takedown defense. Good probably has enough to keep this on the feet, and for all he has accomplished inside the UFC, Muhammad is otherwise still in prove-it territory when it comes to earning this type of win. The pick is Good via decision.

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